One constant question in East Asian geopolitics is how much influence China actually has over North Korea.
With Pyongyang's active pursuit of nuclear weapons and last year's spate of provocative missile and nuclear tests, as well as its unexpected offer of direct talks between presidents Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump, it has become clear that China's control is limited, which -- while worrisome -- should not be surprising.
China has been trying to have it both ways with North Korea for a long time, on two issues: China wants North Korea to be weak, but not so weak that it would collapse, and incorrigible enough to keep the US occupied, but not so dangerous that it actually starts a war.
On the first issue, China wants to maintain the status quo of its official ally, because it fears a collapse of the Kim's regime could send an influx of refugees over the bordering Yalu and Tumen Rivers and into the Liaoning and Jilin provinces of China.
Such an influx might destabilize those provinces, if not broader swaths of China.
