Why Erdogan's Election Has Gone From Shoo-In to Nail-Biter

Why Erdogan's Election Has Gone From Shoo-In to Nail-Biter

In the shadow of the former Soviet republics at Turkey's eastern edge, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's campaign is fighting to overcome the hurdles that have turned his election from a first-round lock into a nail-biter.
 
The city of Kars, which served as a NATO listening post during the Cold War, is divided among the country's main ethnic groups -- Kurds, Turks and Azeris -- making it something of a microcosm of the national vote. The city of 300,000 last year backed Erdogan's demand to establish an executive presidency by a percentage point -- about the same margin as the country overall.

Since then, though, the president's alliance with nationalist hardliners has given both ethnic Kurds and moderates a reason to abandon his governing coalition. A poll commissioned by Bloomberg showed Erdogan winning in the first round with 50.8 percent -- within the 3.5 percentage point margin of error -- underscoring his need to keep his base intact with both the presidency and control of parliament at stake.


Voters like Ali Ihsan Alinak reflect the risk to the former Islamist firebrand who has led Turkey since 2003. A Kurdish architect who runs a fusion restaurant in the city center dominated by century-old, single-story Russian-style buildings, Alinak says Erdogan has antagonized his ethnic group by cracking down on its political leaders.

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