China's rift with the US has compounded fears for the global economy. The trade war may have had little direct effect on global trade volumes, but it has undermined business confidence. Manufacturing has been particularly affected, with sentiment and output indicators in the US, Europe and Asia performing poorly.
Financial markets are worried and economists are rapidly revising down global growth forecasts. The World Bank said on January 8 that “storm clouds are brewing for the global economy”. There have been sharp drops in stock and oil prices over the past three months while there is a widely held expectation that interest rates will rise.
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