Five Years Later, Has Putin's Ukraine Gamble Paid Off?

In February 2014 Russia's “little green men” began a not-so-covert military intervention in Ukraine, stoking a conflict that has killed 13,000. In the West, Moscow's actions were roundly condemned; for the Kremlin, they surely look different. Five years later it is worth asking: Has President Vladimir Putin's gamble in Ukraine paid off and, if so, for whom? The answer is of paramount importance as it can illuminate Russian leaders' decisions on future interventions—whether to pursue them, where and how.