Referendum Talk Is a Big Gamble for Labour

In 2017, Labour gained just 9,860 votes in Scotland – just 700 more votes than it gained in Wes Streeting's Ilford North constituency – but picked up six extra seats. Why? There were two factors at work: the first was that almost half a million people who voted for the SNP in 2015 did not vote in 2017. Politicians in the SNP, Scottish Conservatives, Scottish Labour and Scottish Liberal Democrats all suggest the same set of factors, albeit in very different orders. They are: first-time voters who voted for independence in 2014 and the SNP in 2015 did not keep up the habit; voters who voted to leave both the United Kingdom and the European Union sat on their hands; excitement around Jeremy Corbyn dissipated some of the SNP's aura of distinct anti-political verve, and unease at another independence referendum even among supporters of a Yes vote.