Brexiteers Can't Afford a Tactical Vote

A funny thing about elections is that people's expectations of what the result will be can affect what the result actually is.

There have been hints of this in my polling over the course of the election campaign. The survey I published yesterday found more people expecting a Conservative victory than was the case last month. At the same time, enthusiasm for switching to the Tories among some critical voters – the things that makes such a result possible – has diminished.

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