The United States got very lucky, but there’s no reason to think its luck will last. Any one of the Iranian ballistic missiles fired at Iraqi bases could have killed an American. President Donald Trump had, before the strike, warned that an attack would prompt a U.S. counter strike, purportedly at up to 52 pre-selected targets inside Iran. During the strike, Iran warned that it would target bases that host American forces in the Persian Gulf if they supported a counter strike. This action, in retrospect, could have led to more U.S. strikes, raising questions about when and where both sides would be satisfied with the outcome. Knowing all this, Iran acted, risking an American military response — a fact that should not be overlooked as people try to assign winners and losers to a crisis largely of its own making.
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