For now, the risk of a standoff between Russia and NATO in the Arctic remains low. However, should military tension increase in the region, naval assets and overall military deployments would largely play in Moscow’s favor in the European Arctic and in Washington’s in the Pacific Arctic.1 In the European theatre NATO members and their partners Sweden and Finland have limited Arctic-capable military forces present and reinforcements would take a long time to arrive from the other side of the North Atlantic. Naval assets on both sides are generally ill-fitted for genuine ice conditions, which limits the scope and the nature of operations in the region. Moreover, the Kremlin would likely seek to remove military tension from European Arctic waters as quickly as possible toward the North Atlantic, which would increase pressure on NATO to defend the North Atlantic sea line of communication (SLOC) and ensure access to the Baltic Sea.
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