During the seeming campaign respite, a series of seminal analytical essays sparked a multifaceted debate on the state of the Belarusian presidential race so far. According to Fyodor Lukyanov, an influential Russian political commentator, the events in Belarus are not likely to follow the Ukrainian scenario, because the external actors drew lessons from what occurred in Kyiv six years ago. Furthermore, now, unlike in 2013–2014, those outside actors are immersed in their own problems. Nevertheless, Lukyanov believes, Lukashenka is more nervous today than he was in previous elections. This is both because of his sheer longevity at the helm of power and because Moscow is now following in the footsteps of “Donald Trump’s mercantilism” and has stopped rewarding Lukashenka’s caprices, knowing all too well that Belarus’s economic dependency on Moscow cannot be overcome without a catastrophe (Globalaffairs.ru, June 23).
