But as the 2023 centenary approaches, the decisive consideration in determining the future of Erdoğan’s canal may be national pride. The Montreux Convention is the last vestige of foreign interference in Turkey’s territorial integrity. Although often labeled a neo-Ottoman, Erdoğan is every bit as much a Turkish nationalist as was Atatürk. His nationalism may be religious where Atatürk’s was secular, but just like Atatürk, he wants to lead a strong, nationalist Turkey, not a tolerant multinational empire. Just like Atatürk, he has suppressed the Kurds, fought the Armenians, and antagonized the Greeks. And just like Atatürk, he resents the curtailment of Turkish sovereignty represented by the internationalization of the Bosporus.
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