Moscow-Minsk Ties After 2020

(PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo) The Belarusian Revolution was a stress test for Belarus-Russia relations. The domestic political crisis that followed the rigged presidential elections of 2020 weakened the Minsk regime and put Moscow in a highly advantageous position. It was expected that the Kremlin would grab the opportunity to increase Belarus’s subordination to Russia—and perhaps engage in territorial incorporation and the replacement of President Aleksandr Lukashenko. However, nothing of the kind happened. Bilateral relations have continued as “business as usual,” with Moscow acting carefully and showing no formal signs of seeking the political reintegration of the two countries.

 

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