Last month, Moscow unilaterally suspended implementation of the New START Treaty, the only remaining legally binding, verifiable agreement on nuclear arms reduction between the United States and Russia. While this suspension does not mean the immediate end of the treaty or prompt resumption of an arms race, it worsens the already dim prospects for retaining nuclear arms control past 2026 when New START expires. Moscow's decision points to a fork in the road for U.S. policymakers wishing to prevent nuclear war: Either the United States and Russia will manage to continue using arms control as a tool of national security and deterrence, as we have for the past six decades, or we need to start planning for a world without it. The prudent choice is to prepare for both scenarios—through continued pressure on Moscow to resume dialogue, but also through investment in a resilient deterrence strategy and capabilities that leverage commercial innovation and increase strategic stability. Success in achieving these objectives will require bipartisan support in Washington.
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