Russia believes that it does not have to outproduce Ukraine and its backers or outfight the Ukrainian military if it can outlast U.S. interest in the conflict. In short, Russia believes that its road to Kyiv runs through Washington. To end the war in Ukraine, the United States and Ukraine’s other supporters must target that belief. As long as President Putin believes that he can achieve his goals by simply outwaiting the West, he will be extremely unlikely to settle for anything less than the annexation of at least large portions of Ukraine by force. President Trump’s announcement that he will increase aid to Ukraine and sanctions on Russia is an important step toward undermining that belief, but it requires follow-through if it is to bring the war to an end.
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