The Greenland Crisis Won’t Break NATO

Greenland is unlikely to fracture NATO as an institution, but it could weaken what matters most: deterrence credibility. If Washington applies visible pressure on Denmark over access, basing, or authority—especially in a way that looks coercive inside the alliance—partners may begin to treat collective defense as politically conditional rather than automatic. That shift wouldn’t announce itself through treaty drama; it would appear in quiet hedging: slower planning timelines, more reassurance-seeking, more cautious signaling, and greater hesitation in crisis decision-making