It is ambitious at this point given the uncertainties of the raging Iran War to inventory likely lessons and outcomes on the region’s future. But it is also necessary, as analysis of alternative scenarios should best begin before a major inflection point is upon us. That inflection point could range from the end of the Islamic Republic and a new, quite possibly permanent peace order in the region, to a disguised American defeat and the rise of an even more radical, aggressive Iran, despite its disaffected population and tremendous loses. This essay examines first the state of the campaign, then the lessons learned, and, finally, the alternative endings. Despite the absolute necessity of Israel and the United States finally bringing war to an Iran that has brought war to the region for decades, there are no guarantees all will work out better.
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