James Holmes, a Naval War College strategy professor writing in The National Interest, throws some needed cold water on the idea that the United States and China are destined for war because of the Thucydides Trap—the supposedly inevitable clash between predominant powers and rising powers epitomized by the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta, which was made newly popular by Harvard’s Graham Allison in his 2017 book Destined for War. Holmes cautions against claims that certain events or outcomes are “destined” in global affairs. There are no inevitabilities in history or international relations. Leaders make decisions that determine peace or war.
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