As the United States’ quagmire in Iran makes clear, wars are almost always much harder to stop than they are to start. Over the past 80 years, less than 20 percent of the roughly 300 wars tracked by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program ended in a clear victory by one side. A slightly smaller percentage ended in negotiated settlement; more than 60 percent had no formal ending. And the longer a conflict continues, the harder it becomes to broker a settlement. In wars fought between 1945 and 1989, another study found, mediation succeeded 37 percent of the time when it began within the first one to three months of fighting but only 19 percent of the time when negotiations began a year or more into a war.
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