China Cannot Yet Hold a Beach on Taiwan

There was widespread concern in Washington that China’s extensive fleet of civilian ferries could concentrate a surprise landing of 60,000 to 400,000 soldiers on the coast of Taiwan. According to the IISS and Defense Priorities’ Lyle Goldstein, Taiwan’s entire active army, including conscripts, dropped from 240,000 in 2000, to 88,000 in 2020, and has only crept up to 95,000 in 2026.