The escalating conflict in Iran has immediate consequences for the Middle East. But its strategic ripple effects extend well beyond the Gulf. For Russia, already locked in a grinding war in Ukraine, instability in Tehran presents a complex mix of opportunity, vulnerability, and strategic distraction.
At first glance, Moscow and Tehran appear closely aligned. In 2025, Russia and Iran formalized a 20-year Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty covering defense, energy, trade and technology. Both states face Western sanctions. Both frame their foreign policies around resistance to...