Despite the vague nature of data on North Korea, existing evidence leads one to conclude that this nuclear state, run by a relative child declaring war on the West, should alarm us more than any jihadist network that has fueled our national paranoia for the past decade. Yet while pundits scream about war and preemptive strikes, asking how we came to reach this point -- as well as what motivates the young Kim -- might help the international community defuse the situation.
The promise of 70 virgins in heaven and post-suicide familial assistance are incomparable to the legacy breathing down Kim's back. The grandson of his nation's founder, isolated by his father's legacy, Kim Jong-un has been in power just over a year and looks out upon the untenable landscape of his failing state. Continuing down his father's extremist isolationist path, the cult of Kim will surely crumble or the people will die out. If North Korea liberalizes, young Kim has failed his ancestors and the godheads they created. Following his grandfather's path, unifying Korea under the communist banner, more will doubtless die than the millions who perished in Kim Il-sung's onslaught. Empathizing for a moment with a tyrant threatening us with war, given any of these outcomes that result in Kim's eternal shame versus the one that might bring glory and honor to his name, what choice does he have?
Any of the aforementioned futures are more terrifying for humanity than al-Qaeda ever was, yet Kim Jong-un is our best hope to defuse the situation. If the dynasty dies, the generals will certainly take power, educated by a war they still seek to win to reunify Korea, and conflict is guaranteed. Yet the best option, liberalization, remains an unfathomable X-factor. Few people alive today remember a time before the pseudo-religious Kim dynasty. The effect of 25 million ideologically-indoctrinated inmates of Kim's island prison suddenly released into the stupefying freedoms of the modern world, without faith, without structure, face-to-face with their sworn enemies, is utterly incalculable. The only outcome that doesn't end in tragedy is a slow liberalization under the gradually-weakening godhead of the Kim family. Our best negotiating partner is Kim Jong-un, and the diplomatic community needs to begin treating him as such.
Ban Ki-moon's histrionics last week were ill-considered and nationalistic, giving Kim the perception that the UN is North Korea's enemy from the start. This means diplomatic efforts cannot be UN-oriented. As Joel Wit and Jenny Town suggested to President Obama last month, "North Korean leaders have a history of issuing ... pronouncements that instantly set policy. So reaching out directly to Kim Jong-un might not be such a bad idea ..." Obama should honor his promises of diplomacy and not just call but meet with Kim personally. It suited our short-term political needs to portray this 30-year-old man as a petulant child, as it did to treat his father as a joke, but these pseudo-diplomatic approaches have resulted in a rogue nuclear-armed state courting global conflict, and we would be foolish to continue treating them so hubristically.
Kim Jong-il backed down because of U.S. aid. We're regularly extorted by enemies and allies alike, and we buy "peace," seeking endless and largely unaccountable Band-Aid solutions. We need an endgame where we stop supporting dictators, paying tyrants billions for another year of quiet. We must force Kim to liberalize, slowly but surely incentivizing him away from isolation, defusing this island powder keg.
However, that endgame is a luxury for another day.
Kim is stuck between a rock and a hard place, but so long as he remains there, the world stands at the verge of destruction. The likelihood is that the Supreme Leader makes a show of magnanimously sparing us his wrath, but unusual indicators suggest this is not your everyday saber-rattling. Korea will not be reunited under Kim, no Chamberlainesque territorial appeasement can be considered, but we have little choice but to return to the negotiating table, understanding that it's in our enlightened self-interest to help Kim save face. When this crisis ends, America needs a new method of dealing with extortionist dictators, but right now, to prevent unprecedented tragedy, we must give Kim a graceful path out, starting with a meeting.
