realclearworld Newsletters: Mideast Memo
A poll conducted this fall by Zogby Research Services of several Arab nations, in addition to Turkey and Iran, confirmed what might strike many as the obvious: People in the Middle East do not particularly trust the United States.
Indeed, while the September survey of several thousand people across the region found a diversity of opinions on subjects such as the Muslim Brotherhood and the Iranian nuclear agreement, there were just a few issues that earned near consensus across the Middle East. Standing out among those was a complete lack of faith in the United States' efforts to combat violent extremism in the region.
Holding face-to-face interviews over the course of a month, Zogby found that "[t]he roles of the United States and Iran in combating extremist sectarian violence are viewed the most negatively. In Jordan, 31% of respondents view the United States' role as positive; in the other seven countries surveyed fewer than one-quarter of respondents see the U.S. role as positive."
The numbers don't look any better when broken down by sect and ethnicity: When asked about the effectiveness of the U.S. campaign in their country, Iraqi Sunnis, Shiites, and Kurds alike expressed overwhelming disapproval of U.S. efforts to combat ISIS.
Jim Zogby, managing director of the eponymous polling firm, expounded on this lingering lack of faith in U.S. intentions and capabilities in a recent interview with Al-Monitor's Barbara Slavin:
"Zogby ... told Al-Monitor in an interview that more than 50% of those polled still cited anti-U.S. anger as a factor in the rise of jihadist groups. He added that the weight of this driver had diminished in relative terms because of the ‘less heavy' U.S. military footprint in the region under the Barack Obama administration.
"In past surveys, Zogby noted, 90% had faulted U.S. policies as a cause for extremism."
Thus the United States finds itself in a precarious position: The cost of applying a heavier footprint in the region in an effort to defeat the Islamic State group may only further alienate the very same people it needs to defeat said jihadi organization.
For the United States, the old Aesop proverb about pleasing everyone rings true in the Middle East. In a region where government accountability is poor and centralized authority is often weak, ethnic, tribal, and religious identities become the flags in which people wrap themselves. Consequently, any attempt by the United States to support or empower one of those flags in its campaign against ISIS can have a kind of butterfly effect across the region.
Washington's support of Kurdish forces in Syria frustrates NATO ally Turkey and many Sunni Arabs in the country; its efforts to arm and enable Sunni Arabs seeking to oust Syrian President Bashar Assad have put it at odds with Shiite Iran, which is fighting ISIS in Iraq; distrust of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps runs high in the region, and thus efforts to repel ISIS from Sunni Arab territories in Iraq have often been confused as collusion with Iran-backed Shiite militias -- militias that are often feared more than ISIS by these very same Sunni communities. The Daily Beast's Michael Weiss:
"[W]hen one watches the many videos being sharing [sic] enthusiastically by some of our [Shiite] ground partners in this war, showing them playing bongos with severed heads or make shwarma out of charred, strung-up corpses, one realizes that ISIS's return to places from which it's been expelled is inevitable."
Proving that no good deed goes unpunished, the loss of hearts and minds in Iraq's Sunni heartland has done little to ingratiate America with the country's Shiite majority. Even after Washington all but handed Baghdad over to a divisive, sectarian Shiite government, distrust of U.S. intentions still runs rampant among Shia there, with some even believing that Washington itself is arming and aiding ISIS -- the very same group that the United States is presently spending billions to vanquish.
Defeating the Islamic State group will likely require a great deal of resources and manpower, but it will also require the diplomatic credibility on the ground to weave together the disparate flags and forces currently waging wars of self-interest across Iraq and Syria. It's a credibility the United States simply does not possess.
More on this:
Current and Future Challenges in the Middle East -- Zogby Research Services
Iraq's War of Flags -- Al-Monitor
Washington Has Only Bad Choices in Fight Against ISIS -- Vox
Iraqis Think the U.S. Is in Cahoots with Islamic State -- Washington Post
Around the Region
Iran is recruiting Pakistani Shiites to fight in Syria. Reuters has the report: "One recruitment ad posted on Facebook last week said any physically fit man between 18 and 35 should apply to fight in Syria. It offered 45 days of initial military training along with six months of further training in Syria, a salary of 120,000 Pakistani rupees (approximately $1100) per month and 15 days of holiday every three months. ... The Afghan and Pakistani recruits help make up for the withdrawal of Iraqi Shi'ite militia units, called home to help fight Islamic State fighters there last year."
Iraqi military makes gains in Ramadi. "The White House said Iraqi forces were making "modest progress" in the effort to retake Ramadi. U.S. Secretary of Defense Ash Carter said the Pentagon was prepared to send advisers and attack helicopters to help the Iraqis in the final push for control of the city, another indication of Washington's willingness to escalate the fight against Islamic State." The Wall Street Journal has more.
Why are Turkish troops in Iraq? The New Yorker's Dexter Filkins explains: "The Turkish move into Iraq is the latest in a series of geopolitical flailings by the blustering and impulsive Turkish President, Recep Tayyip ErdoÄ?an. Most of them are related to the civil war in Syria. Since 2011, when the Syrian uprising began, ErdoÄ?an has sought to gain some kind of advantage there, or at least to feel sure that he is backing the right horse. And he's failed miserably. As much as any other leader in the region, ErdoÄ?an has pushed vigorously for the removal of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. To see this through, the Turkish government has backed the most extreme rebel groups, including ISIS, allowing and even helping foreign fighters to come into Turkey and cross into Syria. ISIS would never have metastasized as virulently as it has without Turkey's assistance."
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