- Lebanon's new electoral law, which allocates parliamentary seats according to the proportion of the vote a party receives, cost Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri's Future Movement party about one-third of its seats in the latest elections, as projected.
- Nevertheless, al-Hariri launched an investigation and a subsequent purge in his party, ostensibly in response to its dismal performance in the vote.
- Contrary to the prime minister's stated reasons for the reorganization, al-Hariri probably undertook the shake-up to ease Saudi Arabia's concerns over his party's ties with Hezbollah.
Lebanon's recent parliamentary elections did not go as Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri had hoped. His party, the Future Movement — which his father founded in 1992 — lost 12 of its seats, including five in Beirut, one of its traditional strongholds. President Michel Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement, on the other hand, picked up eight additional seats to become the biggest bloc in parliament. The Shiite coalition made up of Hezbollah and the Amal Movement also gained a couple of seats, while its allies clinched important victories.
Less than a week after the May 6 polls, al-Hariri launched a purge to get his party back on track. He fired officials and dissolved Future Movement's parliamentary affairs department and elections machinery. At the same time, al-Hariri's cousin, Nader al-Hariri, the architect of Future Movement's alliance with the Free Patriotic Movement, resigned as his chief of staff. Al-Hariri undertook the reshuffle ostensibly because of the party's dismal performance in the parliamentary elections. But that's only part of the story. The reorganization was also an attempt by the prime minister to get back in Saudi Arabia's good graces.
A Clear Cause and Effect
Future Movement's losses in the elections hardly came as a surprise. For months leading up to the vote, Lebanese media reported how ill-prepared the party appeared for the race. Observers, in fact, pegged Future Movement as the contest's biggest loser thanks to a new electoral law that allocates parliamentary seats based on the proportion of votes a party receives. Al-Hariri endorsed the measure — a departure from the previous majoritarian system — at his chief of staff's urging as part of a political deal with Aoun, despite the fact that it would inevitably weaken his party. (In the process, he also lost the support of other Sunni leaders who, like al-Hariri, stood to lose seats for their parties in predominantly Sunni urban centers such as Beirut.) And sure enough, Future Movement lost about one-third of its seats in the elections.
With such a clear explanation to point to for the party's performance, al-Hariri's call for an investigation into the matter, culminating in the dismissal of so many party officials, sounded disingenuous. Enter Saudi Arabia. Evidence suggests the kingdom demanded Nader al-Hariri's firing for his push to improve Future Movement's relationship with Hezbollah, an ally and frequent proxy of Iran.
Unfulfilled Promises
In 2016, al-Hariri assured Riyadh that if it gave Aoun's presidency its blessing, he would be able to stop Hezbollah from meddling in the affairs of other countries in the region, such as Syria. The Saudis agreed, but rather than dialing back its regional activities, Hezbollah increased them. Riyadh made no secret of its frustration with al-Hariri's failure to follow through on his unrealistic promise. The kingdom's minister for the Gulf issued a statement in fall 2017 expressing outrage at the Lebanese government's silence over "the war on Saudi Arabia (by the) terrorist militia party (Hezbollah)." Al-Hariri responded that Saudi Arabia should not "hold us responsible for something that is beyond my control or that of Lebanon." A few days later, Saudi officials summoned him to Riyadh and then held him there, reportedly to coerce him to resign his post.
What pushed Saudi Arabia to try to force al-Hariri from office was the Lebanese prime minister's earlier meeting in Beirut with Ali Akbar Velayati, a senior adviser to Iran's supreme leader. Worried about the collapse of his Saudi-based construction company, Oger, and about his shrinking wealth, al-Hariri hosted Velayati seemingly in an effort to secure his office by appeasing Iran and, by extension, Hezbollah. In his fixation on maintaining his power, however, the prime minister failed to consider how Saudi Arabia would take news of the meeting. French President Emmanuel Macron eventually stepped in to negotiate al-Hariri's release from Saudi custody and his return to office in Beirut.
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman set as a condition for al-Hariri's release that he distance himself from Hezbollah and from Aoun. By dismissing his cousin as chief of staff, the prime minister may have been trying to do just that. Hezbollah, in turn, probably will announce that it is shifting its focus from regional issues to domestic affairs. That way, the prime minister will have room to reach an agreement with Saudi Arabia that will ensure Riyadh a place at the table in his next Cabinet.
