Reprinted with permission from Stratfor Worldview.
A Spanish Government Remains Elusive
Spain's Nov. 10 general election resulted in another fragmented parliament, leaving no single party able to govern alone. The Socialists won 120 of the 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies, followed by the conservative People's Party (88 seats), the far-right Vox (52 seats) and the left-wing Unidas Podemos (35 seats).
The new Spanish parliament will hold its first session on Dec. 3. After that, King Felipe IV will begin consulting with all the parties to see if a government can be formed. This process does not have a specific timetable, however, meaning it could take months. If no alliances emerge, Spain may have to hold yet another general election in early 2020. In the meantime, prolonged uncertainty about the country's political future — driven in part by the successionist push in Catalonia — risks exacerbating the country's economic slowdown.
More Coalition Talks in Tow
An alliance between center-left and left-wing parties (including the Socialists, Unidas Podemos, and Mas Pais) would control only 158 seats, well short of the 176 needed to appoint a government. Similarly, an alliance of center-right and right-wing forces (including the People's Party, Vox and Ciudadanos) would control only 150 seats, which would make it even harder for them to access power.
This means that smaller, regional parties will play a key role in the appointment of Spain's new government. Several of them, however, are pro-independence groups from Catalonia that will demand the organization of a legally binding independence referendum for the region in exchange for their support — a condition that neither the center-left nor the center-right will accept. Negotiations to form a government will thus last for weeks, if not months, meaning that Spain will continue to operate under a caretaker government with limited powers.
A Looming Economic Threat
Spain's party system has become increasingly fragmented in recent years; indeed, the Nov. 10 vote was the country's fourth national election in as many years. But despite the political uncertainty, the Spanish economy — which is still one of the fastest-growing in Western Europe — has remained notably resilient. There are signs, however, that it is losing steam. The European Union now expects the growth rate of Spain's gross domestic product, which had hit 2.4 percent in 2018, to cool to 1.9 percent in 2019 before slowing to 1.5 percent in 2020.
Many of the factors dragging on the Spanish economy are external, including the U.S.-China trade war and Brexit-related uncertainty. But the fact that Spain likely will not have a fully functioning government for months means that the caretaker authorities in Madrid will have little to no room to introduce legislative reforms to address the economy.
The Secessionists vs. the Nationalists
In Catalonia, pro-independence parties secured roughly 43 percent of the vote in the latest election, showing that support for succession in the region remains strong. But despite their popularity, the parties remain internally divided, which reduces the chances of the regional government making any drastic unilateral moves to secede from Spain.
Meanwhile, on the national level, Spain's far-right Vox party is now the third-largest in parliament after more than doubling its seat count in the Nov. 10 vote. Vox's jump in popularity shows that a significant sector of the Spanish electorate is increasingly turning to the nationalist right, partially as a reaction to Catalan secessionism. Should Vox enter a coalition government, its push to recentralize Spain and to crack down on secessionists would significantly increase tensions between the central government in Madrid and the regional government in Barcelona. But considering the current composition of the parliament, a Spanish government including Vox remains unlikely — at least, for now.
