Tumultuous street protests have shaken governments across Latin America, most recently in Colombia. Brazil’s leaders worry that similar protests could reach their country as well. The site of massive rallies a few years ago, so far Brazil appears immune to the violent unrest convulsing the continent. But the same kindling that took fire in Bolivia and Chile pervades their country: anger at elites, persistent inequality, weak employment prospects, and endemic corruption. While there are plenty of reasons to believe that Brazil will not follow its neighbors into violent unrest, domestic factors like the release of former president Luiz Inácio ‘Lula’ da Silva from prison could provide the necessary spark.
Just one month ago, Brazil’s government appeared ready to enter a cycle of political and economic reform. President Jair Bolsonaro finally achieved his prized legislative victory -- a critical overhaul of the nation’s pension system -- freeing up critical resources for much-needed education reform and new efforts at public security. With his government and the economy starting to deliver, Bolsonaro’s ministers are advocating tax reform as the next step to unleash the country’s considerable economic potential. According to the World Bank, Brazil spends more hours than any country on earth complying with its tax code -- 1,500 a year on average -- and more than eight times its regional peers Mexico and Argentina. Reform of such a behemoth obstacle to growth seemed like an obvious follow-on to pension reform.
However, the surprisingly destructive protests in neighboring Chile have persuaded Bolsonaro to slow the implementation of economic reforms. Brazil’s Finance Minister, Paulo Guedes, considers Chile’s economy to be an inspiration and has studied the model closely. (Like the Chilean advisors who liberalized its economy in the 1980s, Guedes also has a PhD in economics from the University of Chicago.) In light of the region’s activism, Guedes commented that he would rather not provide Brazilians with “excuses to smash things in the streets.”
Compounding these dynamics, Brazil’s Supreme Court recently intervened, forcing the release of Lula, Bolsonaro’s principal rival on the left. Lula was convicted of graft in 2017 and has served 19 months in prison, but the Court ordered him released pending the exhaustion of the appeals process.
Since his release, Lula has cast a long shadow over Bolsonaro’s presidency. If an imprisoned Lula distracted Bolsonaro, a liberated Lula who has embarked on a national speaking tour of opposition rallies could prove debilitating. While it is unlikely that Lula will be eligible to run for the presidency in 2022 -- a law known as ficha limpa (“clean slate”) would require the overturning of his convictions -- he understands that he can slow Bolsonaro’s momentum from the outside. Indeed, at a recent Workers’ Party conference he promised to “make their lives hell,” boasting that he is the “biggest polarizer of this country. What I want is to polarize.”
Lula still commands a sizable and loyal base within Brazil, most of which is against the current government. Brazilians have not yet heeded his appeal to add their voices to the cry of protest across the region, but his prodding may be enough to get the average Brazilian -- usually disconnected from the events of wider Latin America -- to pay closer attention. Certainly, the Bolsonaro administration is leaving nothing to chance. Last week, in an emergency decree to Brazil’s Congress, President Bolsonaro requested the authority to intervene with the military in response to any street violence.
At present, several factors mitigate against massive upheaval in Brazil. Although Bolsonaro’s approval ratings have fallen since his election last year, they are far better than his counterparts’ in Chile and Colombia. Steady progress in fixing Brazil’s economy and modest improvements in public security, combined with Bolsonaro’s anti-establishment rhetoric, may be just enough to stave off unrest and insulate him from citizen anger toward the region’s political elites. Fatigue from 14 years of Workers’ Party rule, the resulting political polarization, and the convincing results of a bitterly fought election may also factor into the country’s relative calm.
Yet if Lula manages to goad Brazilians into disrupting major urban centers, Bolsonaro may be uniquely unsuited to defuse tensions. His proclivity to fan the flames of controversy makes him more prone to stoking social unrest than to quelling it. Worse, Bolsonaro’s son, Eduardo, recently mused about reinstating Ato Institucional Número 5 (Institutional Act Number 5) if “the left radicalizes.” AI5, as it is known, was a major decree issued by Brazil’s military dictatorship that suspended constitutional guarantees and curtailed press freedoms. This has inflamed Bolsonaro’s opponents, who have long warned of his nostalgia for Brazil’s military dictatorship.
While Brazil experienced mass activism in its recent past, such as when millions turned out to protest the endemic corruption revealed by the Lava Jato investigation, the country is tranquil for the time being. However, the vulnerability of Latin America’s political establishment to mass mobilizations, combined with Lula’s campaign for Brazilians to join the ruckus, will give officials in Brasilia many sleepless nights.
Ryan Berg is a research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), where his research includes Latin American foreign-policy and security issues. The views expressed are the author's own.
