The Trump administration published its 2021 budget on Monday. The $4.8 trillion proposal makes modest cuts to domestic expenditures while increasing military spending to $740.5 billion. The budget is not expected to be approved by Congress as-is, but if history is any guide, Washington will probably end up spending more, not less, than President Donald Trump suggests. Military spending may be slightly reorganized, but it almost certainly will not decrease.
This prediction can be made with confidence because too many policymakers in Washington are firmly convinced that more money equals more security. They always think inflating military spending will make us safer. This is a dangerous myth.
Spending is not inherently of strategic value. The last two decades of foreign-policy missteps, corresponding to ever-higher spending by the Pentagon and related departments, have made this evident. Hiking those expenditures yet again is no substitute for developing a realistic grand strategy that prioritizes diplomacy and pursues peace.
The Pentagon has a long record of shoddy accounting and unjustified outlays. It wastes and loses billions with ease. The results of the Pentagon’s second-ever comprehensive audit were reported in November, and just like in the previous year, it failed.
But here’s the real rub: Even if the Pentagon passed its audit with flying colors, even if its accounting systems were perfectly accurate, we’d still be facing the larger problem of defense dollars being used in ways that do not enhance our defense. We do not only speak here of Pentagon funds going to non-military projects, end-of-the-year spending sprees which are blatant attempts to needlessly boost the next year’s budget, or even money lost to boondoggles like the F-35 jet — though all those are worth a mention.
More important than any of these details is the strategic big picture, which is indisputably grim. Our reckless, military-first foreign policy has embroiled the United States in conflicts unconnected to our vital national interests. In the post-9/11 era, American troops are “more or less permanently engaged in ongoing hostilities,” as Ret. Col. Andrew Bacevich wrote at Foreign Affairs. “Nothing really ends. Meanwhile, as if on autopilot, the Pentagon accrues new obligations and expands its global footprint, oblivious to the possibility that in some parts of the world, U.S. forces may no longer be needed, whereas in others, their presence may be detrimental.”
Trump has offered critiques similar to Bacevich’s, repeatedly promising to end our “endless wars” in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and beyond. Instead, he has yet to end a single one of the many U.S. military interventions in the greater Middle East and Africa. Thus, as Bacevich summarizes, “considerable sacrifices” by U.S. forces and “stupendous sums” expended by the Pentagon have produced little of the “promised results—disorder curbed, democracy promoted, human rights advanced, terrorism suppressed.” That indefensible pattern continues under this administration just as it did under the prior two.
Not to be missed in Trump’s budget proposal is his plan to cut the State Department budget, already a small fraction of what the Pentagon gets, by nearly a quarter from 2020 to 2021. To put it mildly, this is an eyebrow-raising move at a time when we need competent, trustworthy diplomats more than ever. Tensions with nations like Russia, North Korea, and Iran could escalate into war if we do not have the resources to advance U.S. interests via effective, working-level diplomacy. Meanwhile, the wars in which we are embroiled might just keep on going.
“If you don’t fund the State Department fully, then I need to buy more ammunition ultimately,” Trump’s first defense secretary, Gen. James Mattis, famously said. He was right: Diplomacy is crucial to U.S. security and far less expensive than military action. A prudent federal budget would ensure the State Department is well equipped to pursue productive negotiations with friends, great-power rivals and regional troublemakers alike.
A diplomacy-first foreign policy is the surest way to promote peace and keep Americans safe. Our federal budget should reflect that truth.
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Bonnie Kristian is a fellow at Defense Priorities and contributing editor at The Week. Her writing has also appeared at CNN, Politico, USA Today, the Los Angeles Times, Defense One, and The American Conservative, among other outlets. The views expressed are the author's own.
