On Nov, 23, U.S. President Joe Biden and South Korean President Moon Jae-In announced ongoing joint efforts to finalize an end of war declaration document. The Korean War (1950-53) that killed an estimated 1.2 million Koreans and 40, 000 Americans never formally ended, but rather was halted with an Armistice Agreement that left the Korean Civil War frozen and the peninsula divided indefinitely at the 38th parallel with a Communist North and Capitalist South. While hostilities have flared periodically during the ensuing 68 years, the armistice has helped hold back the prospects of war. A formal end of war declaration presents a new opportunity to achieve peace and security in the Indo-Pacific through military de-escalation and should proceed at full speed.
Ending the Korean War would reduce military tensions in the Indo-Pacific at a time when such a positive development is badly needed. From the Ladakh region of the India-Chinese border to the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, numerous fault lines of great power rivalry litter the region and threaten to unleash conflict at a moment's notice. The rise of China as an economic and maritime power has undoubtedly made its neighbors uneasy. South Korea in particular has taken on increased skepticism of Beijing in recent years. While a peace treaty would be immaterial to China’s military build-up in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea, it would help kickstart the long and arduous process of dismantling the 70-year military build-up on the Korean Peninsula, certainly a welcome rose in a field of thorns.
With U.S. deterrence against North Korea already secured by an overwhelming nuclear and conventional advantage, Washington could finally bring its troops home. U.S. troops have resided on the Korean Peninsula since 1945 and 30,000 troops remain as a “trip-wire” force to quickly respond to hostilities. American and Korean troops operate under the Combined Forces Command (CFC) which was established during the Cold War to deter/defeat outside aggression against South Korea, more precisely a North Korean invasion. While previous North Korean leaders routinely pursued forceful reunification, the current regime has not done so. Kim Jong-Un has contrarily named the potential for conflict as a key obstacle preventing reunification. Formal peace with Pyongyang would acknowledge the relative decline in the North’s conventional capabilities and leave CFC with little to deter/defeat, thereby eliminating the need for permanently-stationed American troops.
Washington would enjoy a more sustainable East Asian grand strategy with fewer committed resources. South Korea is scheduled to assume wartime operational control in 2022 after decades of delay. With half of its outstanding security challenges effectively gone with the stroke of a pen, Seoul would face relatively slim odds of ever having to execute wartime operation control making its security situation much more stable over the long-run. Japan has similarly taken on a greater share of its defense burden. The initiative of both nations means their Washington-led alliances can be upheld with less of the burden being shouldered by the U.S. military. Japan and Korea would also both be free to focus on their remaining shared security challenge, China.
Peace in Korea would improve U.S.-China relations. China has a firm stake in the future of the Korean Peninsula, divided or otherwise. It would no doubt be pleased to see its capital no longer in the shadow of American forces and the looming threat of nuclear war made more distant on its border. North Korea and China have a defense treaty, a pact they renewed in 2021. But with war no longer a factor, Beijing would be free from getting dragged into an unwanted conflict to protect its fledgling client state. The Korean War is fundamentally a proxy conflict between American and Chinese spheres of influence and its conclusion would remove a long-standing source of friction between them. We should not be surprised if such a development leads to progress in other areas of U.S.-China relations.
North Korea has long held it will only negotiate a peace treaty unilaterally with the U.S. The Biden and Moon administrations will fundamentally test this assertion. While it remains unclear if Pyongyang will commit to signing, its weakened state in lieu of the COVID-19 pandemic suggests it will be more amenable to negotiation than would otherwise be the case. Washington and Seoul have not yet agreed how to incorporate denuclearization into the document. However, this detail is marginal given that the U.S. has already recognized North Korea as a de facto nuclear power making denuclearization extremely unlikely. Whether Pyongyang’s nukes stay or go pale in significance to what potentially lies ahead. The time has come to replace the Armistice with a formal peace treaty and promote peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific through military de-escalation.
