Scholz’s Bundestag speech will go down in history as one of Germany’s finest moments.
Scholz spoke in measured tones to the entire spectrum of German politics -- to his “traffic-light” coalition and to the opposition. Point by point, Scholz overturned sixty years of German foreign policy known as Ostpolitik. Uncharacteristic of sober German politics, ovations interrupted Scholz’s speech as he threw out the policy of accommodation to Russia, rejected Germany’s pacifism and its policy of treating Russia as “business as usual.”
Scholz condemned Putin’s unprovoked war in the very heart of Europe. He greeted the formidable economic sanctions that were put together in record time and fully supported by Germany. He affirmed Germany’s commitment to defend all NATO members, including the Baltic states and Poland. Scholz reversed Germany’s ban on weapons deliveries to Ukraine and pledged (to a standing ovation) that Germany would overfulfill NATO spending targets—a measure to be entered in the German constitution. He pledged to build two liquefied natural gas terminals, continue Germany’s push for renewable energy, delay the decommissioning of Germany’s nuclear power plants, and build up emergency coal supplies if necessary.
Putin had likely welcomed the new German coalition government headed by an SPD chancellor. After all, its legendary Berlin mayor and Chancellor Willy Brandt counted Ostpolitik as the landmark achievement of his party during the Cold War.
Putin did not realize (or did not care) that there are limits to the patience shown for his disregard for international law. Nor did he realize there would be consequences for his outright lying to European heads of state and key functionaries. (“I will not invade, it’s just a training exercise.”) Remarkably, it was the Ostpolitik-facing Germany that Putin drove over the edge.
Can U.S. President Joe Biden also make history in this evening’s State of the Union Address?
The opportunity is there. Biden has been in office a little more than a year. His party’s abrupt lurch to the left is playing poorly with American voters, who expected him to pursue centrist policies. Instead, he is seen as a captive of the left in his support of higher taxes, anti-energy regulations, lax immigration controls, and weak law enforcement.
Biden is perceived as weak on foreign policy, with the evidence of that weakness shown by the disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan. The American public is suffering from high gas prices as regulators raise the cost of producing and transporting energy. These prices will go higher as a consequence of Putin’s war on Ukraine.
Biden is not encumbered by a sixty-year tradition. He is free to use his speech to return to the center and revive his flailing presidency.
Let me take this opportunity to draft one segment of Biden’s State of the Union. It reads as follows:
“Dear citizens: We all realize the importance of protecting our environment. My administration has been at the forefront in this field of endeavor, but recent events in Europe demonstrate that there are tough tradeoffs that we must consider, albeit reluctantly. As I stand here tonight, Ukraine, a large European democracy, desirous of joining the West, is under attack by a despotic regime headed by a president who seems to have lost his grip on reality with veiled references to nuclear warfare. Working together with our allies, we have levied biting sanctions that should weaken his ability to make war in the heart of Europe. If he is successful in Ukraine, who knows what country is next.
As you know, Putin bases his ability to make war on Russia’s vast energy resources, which allow him to pay for his oversized military. Our sanctions will clearly weaken Putin’s financial resources, but he is still earning billions through energy sales, bolstered by high world oil and gas prices. Here is where we can deliver a perhaps fatal blow to his imperialistic plans.
When I entered office, the US was the world’s largest energy producer and was a net exporter of energy. We must return to that achievement by relaxing restrictions on drilling, refining, and transporting oil and gas. We must speed up bringing online LNG terminals to bring gas to Europe in place of Russian gas. We must build and open additional pipelines at home to transport oil and gas to markets and enable refineries to operate at full steam. We must re-explore whether to give nuclear power a second look. With our technology, we should be able to build such power plants that are safe, secure, and have zero carbon emissions.
I propose we take these measures immediately. By doing so, the prices of oil and gas will fall, depriving Putin of the energy revenues which are paying for his tanks and missiles. You, the citizens of the United States will reap the reward of lower prices at the pump, and inflationary pressures will recede.
As also recognized by my colleague, Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany, the world is full of difficult tradeoffs. With a despot at loose in the heart of Europe conducting the first full-scale war against an innocent neighbor, the choice is clear.
In closing, I would like to recognize the brave people of Ukraine and their resolute President Volodymyr Zelenskiy as they face a brutal onslaught of almost 200,000 Russian troops that do not discriminate between soldiers and civilians. As a citizen of the world, I am proud to call out Slava Ukraini – Glory to Ukraine.”
Paul Gregory is Cullen Professor of Economics Emeritus, University of Houston and Research Fellow at the Hoover Institution of Stanford University. He is also a Research Fellow at the German Institute for Economic Research Berlin. He writes on Russia, Ukraine, and comparative economics. The views expressed are the author’s own.
