Reeling from its latest four-year stint under the leadership of a left-wing administration — its 4th in 20 years — Argentina now heads toward a series of elections that could change the course of the country for the better. This is great news for the country, and it’s great news for the US foreign affairs as well, as the local left has repeatedly opposed free trade agreements between the US and Latin America while welcoming the influence of Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin.
One thing is sure: The coming elections will finally see Vice President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (CFK) leave the executive office. After being in power for 16 out of the last 20 years, CFK is not running for reelection. Those familiar with her career will recognize this as cause for celebration. First as First Lady (2003-2007), later as President (2007-2015), and now as a Vice President informally in charge (2019-today), CFK has been responsible for driving Argentina to the ground. Her fiscal and monetary policies have led to the country's debilitating rise in inflation — up from 8% in 2007 to 114% today. Under her leadership, public spending spiraled out of control and Argentina started running deficits. The crisis she caused, which is yet to be solved, has brought about a poverty rate of over 40% and record numbers of Argentines moving abroad, among others.
The people are done with CFK. Her approval rate rests at a measly 26%; meanwhile, 72% of Argentines have a negative opinion of her. It looks like the left is about to be ousted at long last. Ahead of the primary election of August 13, which will reveal final candidates for the general election on October 22, opposition grouped in the Juntos por el Cambio coalition has taken the lead. Moreover, within the ruling coalition, the far-left faction appears marginal.
Markets are already celebrating. Even as the economic situation has deteriorated in recent months, stocks and bonds have risen, with investors being lured to Argentina merely on the hope of change.
Opposition candidates are numerous, but for the first time in decades they all have something in common: They know there is no room for the next President to be a spendthrift. Within the Juntos por el Cambio coalition, the upcoming primary election on August 13 will feature a battle between Buenos Aires Mayor Horacio Rodríguez Larreta and former Minister of Security Patricia Bullrich. Both supported former President Mauricio Macri, who broke CFK’s hegemony back in 2015 but failed to achieve fiscal balance fast enough during his administration. Today, Larreta promises to bring back economic normalcy through dialogue and consensus, while Bullrich promises to be strong enough to implement reform despite criticism. The endpoint is the same, though: CFK’s policies cannot continue.
In addition, for the first time in history, Argentina will feature a self-described libertarian among its presidential candidates. In fact, Javier Milei’s agenda goes beyond mere normalcy as he proposes to end the country’s Central Bank and to dollarize the economy to eradicate inflation. It is no wonder, then, that CFK has publicly attacked these ideas in recent weeks, even if she is not running.
Interestingly, even the pro-government presidential candidate is trying to distance himself from CFK. Back in 2015, Sergio Massa actually ran against her party and literally promised to incarcerate corrupt politicians from her administration. But as economic chaos followed CFK’s return to power, Massa saw an opportunity to become Minister of Economy in 2022. Seen as a centrist stabilizer, he is poised to win his primary next month.
CFK’s toxicity is a reflection of the fact that Argentines are moving away from the left, and this is exactly what the country needs. A balanced budget, freer trade, fewer regulations, maybe even privatizations: All of these basic measures would align Argentina with its neighbors, but could also unleash the country’s potential in unexpected ways. Indeed, hardly any other Latin American country shows as much promise as Argentina does. With a highly educated people, a vibrant business environment and strong export capabilities, there is no reason why the country should keep shooting itself in the foot.
The demise of CFK does not mean that voters are becoming classical liberals or libertarians. In fact, candidates Larreta and Massa are friends of crony capitalists and are seen as more pro-business than pro-market. But the end of the left would mean that liberalizing reforms are more likely than in the past, as all relevant presidential candidates at least acknowledge the key role of the private sector in promoting economic growth. This could be good for the US, which has tried to advance free-trade agreements with South American countries in recent decades with little success.
Optimism is slowly returning to Argentina as we witness what could be the last days of long-run bankrupt policies. If so, then the country could make its way back to the top of the economic prosperity rankings, as it was during the early 20th century. Whether the era of a weak Argentina is over or not, we will find out soon.
Marcos Falcone is the Project Manager of Fundación Libertad and a regular contributor to Forbes Argentina. His writing has also appeared in The Washington Post, National Review, and Reason, among others. He is based in Buenos Aires, Argentina.
