Star Trek, Star Wars, 2001: Space Odyssey and dozens of other sci-fi stories set in space have delighted us for decades. What’s really happening in space right now, though, should worry us.
It is part of the great power competition that is going on across the world. What’s going on up there can no longer be divorced from terrestrial geopolitics, geo-economics and statecraft.
So, as the UK Government works on its upcoming strategic defence review, which was launched by Prime Minister Keir Starmer with the aim to make Britain secure at home and strong abroad for decades to come, policymakers will become increasingly aware that to omit space would be a mistake.
To stay ahead of strategic competition we must look at space as a crucial part of our defence and security thinking. Ships, aircraft and tanks tend to dominate the debate and headlines, yet none of those things will operate effectively without assured access to space capabilities. Nor could GCHQ function without the satellites in space, a strand of our intelligence gathering that will arguably become more important in the modern world.
To understand just how much we need protection in space, we must recognise that what goes on above us impacts everyday life on earth.
Checking the weather app to decide whether to carry an umbrella, no longer hailing a cab but commanding one from your phone, texting a friend to organise meeting up, emailing a vital document that needs immediate attention, streaming box sets to get through those long, dark nights: all have been made possible because of satellites in space. Tech geeks in California might have put devices into our hands but it’s satellite capacity that’s really driven our reliance upon them.
It has also changed for ever how wars are played out. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine put a spotlight on how space is driving major changes to the defence world – everything from battlefield command and control to the use of drones and long-range missiles have been brought about by space. Space-based remote sensing means that almost anything that moves on the battlefield is being watched by the unblinking eye of a satellite.
It is also important that the public are brought in to this debate and made aware of what the government are doing to protect our interests. The electorate does not forgive poor leadership or lack of preparedness – the pandemic and its aftermath has proved that. Moreover, explaining the future of space and showing government commitment will lead to greater investment and incentivise the commercial world to fuel innovation, creating jobs and skills to underwrite our future economic architecture.
Elon Musk’s SpaceX is the best example of this. It could be argued that without SpaceX, the US government would be unable to claim that they are ahead of China in the race for space. SpaceX was made possible by decades of US government investment in space – during that time, we in Europe largely left it to the US to set the scene. President-elect Trump’s appointment of Musk brings unique commercial knowledge of space into government which – whatever the critics may think – is invaluable at this inflection point in the race for space between East and West.
China and Russia are expanding their presence in space, and seek state and commercial dominance. A US defence intelligence report has highlighted that between 2019 and 2021 the combined operational satellite fleets of China and Russia grew by 70 per cent, palpably demonstrating the seriousness and speed of their intent. This speed is facilitated by capital that’s easy to access and deploy in an authoritarian regime. It is a challenge to Western investment that is currently and to a large extent met by investors and innovators in the private sector.
The UK Government released a National Space Strategy in 2021, which said it would build “one of the most innovative and attractive space economies in the world” and vowed to “protect and defend UK interests in space”. This was a good start, and alongside our Space Command and Space Agency, provides a perfect platform from which to build resilience.
But speed is of the essence. Obsession with outer space, once thought to be the terrain of sci-fi nerds, needs to go mainstream – and that starts with the strategic defence review.
Fiona Hill is the founder of the Future Resilience Forum. She served as Downing Street chief of staff and Home Office special advisor under Theresa May. fiona@marshamstreetconsultants.com
