Over the past decade, Burkina Faso has been experiencing a profound political and humanitarian crisis, driven by armed insurrections and a resurgence of terrorism. Since 2015, the country has witnessed an escalation of violence perpetrated by jihadist groups affiliated with Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, which have progressively extended their control over approximately 40% of the national territory, resulting in over 26.000 recorded civilian casualties by 2025. Security in the capital, Ouagadougou, has been directly threatened by terrorist attacks, the most recent occurring in August 2024, when an incursion by the jihadist group Jama’at Nasrat al-Islam wal-Muslim (JNIM) resulted in the deaths of over 200 individuals.
The situation has inevitably compromised the stability of Burkina Faso, leading to a succession of military and civilian governments that have been unable to restore order or effectively address the radicalised armed groups. Following the ousting of President Roch Marc Christian Kaboré in January 2022, power transitioned to Lt. Col. Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba, whose government was subsequently overthrown in September of the same year by Army Capt. Ibrahim Traoré. The latter has promised to restore security and guide the country toward democratic elections; however, the persistent jihadist threat and the relative international isolation render this transitional path exceedingly challenging. Furthermore, corruption and the authorities’ inability to maintain control over vast areas of the emergence of local militias and self-defence groups, often involved in human rights violations and clashes with government forces.
The complexity of the crisis in Burkina Faso is amplified by the intervention of foreign powers, influencing both political alliances and dynamics of the conflict. Historically linked to France, Burkina Faso has seen a deterioration of bilateral relations with Paris, evidenced by the Burkinabé government’s ultimatum in September 2024, which demanded the “transfer” (interpreted as “closure”) of the French embassy from Ouagadougou, as well as the specious arrest and subsequent detention of four agents of the French DGSE in December 2023.
In parallel, Burkina Faso has strengthened ties with Russia, seeking military and strategic support within a broader regional context, where Mali and Niger have also forged similar relationships, culminating in the formation of the Confederation of the Sahel States (September 2024), closely linked with Moscow. This shift raises concerns among Western governments that Burkina Faso, like Mali, may be growing closer to Russia and enlisting Warner governments mercenaries to confront jihadists. Moscow would thus fill the void left by France, gaining greater influence in West Africa. However, the Russian support and new partnerships do not seem to have yielded the desired results, with the military juntas in power failing to contain the advance of extremist groups, resulting in a 190% increase in terrorism-related victims between 2021 and 2025. Moreover, it appears that Moscow has encouraged Burkina Faso to sever ties with France, only to have a free hand to test its soft-power capabilities, effectively replacing Paris.
Beyond France and Russia, Turkey has also increased its influence in the region, forging economic and military agreements with Burkina Faso. Ankara has reportedly supplied drones (TB2 and AKINCI) and armaments to Burkinabé forces to counter jihadist groups, while Turkish companies have invested in infrastructure and construction in the country. These manoeuvres are to be interpreted within a broader strategy aimed at increasing its presence in the Sahel and positioning Turkey to compete (and, if necessary, negotiate) for control of resources and regional trade on par with major geopolitical powers. Some analysts suggest that France’s former allies, including the Burkinabé government, were inclined to engage in secret talks with Islamists, while France remained committed to fighting them.
The crisis in Burkina Faso has generated a humanitarian catastrophe of vast proportions: over 2 million people have been forced to leave their homes, with over 90% of those displaced being hosted by families, severely straining the resources of local communities. Additionally, approximately 1.5 million people remain blocked in areas that are cut off from aid, trade, markets, mobile phone connections, and basic social services. The educational system, already underdeveloped due to previous low government investments, is collapsing, with on-fifth of school closed due to terrorist attacks, particularly targeting female education centres. Human rights violations are widespread and troubling. Military authorities have been accused of forced recruitment, including children, and intimidation of magistrates and political opponents. The strategy of involving civilian in anti-jihadist operations has led to tragic episodes, such as the Barsalogho massacre in August 2024, where hundreds of civilians were killed while digging trenches under the military junta’s orders.
The situation Burkina Faso remains extremely precarious. The increasing influence of new foreign powers and the authorities’ inability to guarantee security and respect for fundamental rights raise serious doubts about the possibility of a peaceful and lasting resolution to the violence and the country’s institutional stability. The creation of the Confederation of the Sahel States and the progressive distancing from the Western sphere of influence could have even broader geopolitical repercussions, leading to greater internal fragmentation and the expansion of the conflict to other neighbouring countries such as Benin and Côte d’Ivorire, in addition to Mali and Niger.
Matteo Balzarini Zane, bachelor degree in Political Science, International Relations and Human Rights at the University of Padua (Italy). His X account is @m_balzarinizane.
