After securing $2 trillion in United States investments from only three countries last month, President Trump returned to the nation’s capital with a key objective unfulfilled — an Iranian nuclear deal. With diplomacy and economic deals at the forefront of his strategy abroad, Trump’s policy pivot during the first international trip of his second term is on track to restore U.S. leadership in the Middle East previously lost under Biden’s infamous Afghanistan withdrawal.
Though the economic comeback tour succeeded to forge regional partnerships through lavish trade deals in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, loose ends in Iran, Israel-Gaza, and the Syrian conflicts keep America on shaky ground in a developing new world order.
Economic and Diplomatic Accomplishments
Number 47’s trip to the Gulf marked a grand American reset in our foreign policy, and an unmissable re-entry into global affairs. The first and most important stop was Riyadh, where Trump set the tone for trade, sovereignty, and peace. Even signaling to the Crown Prince his inevitable entrance into the Abraham Accords, Trump denounced past hard power intervention, sending a bold diplomatic message: America is done messing with your geopolitics. His address focused on his intentions to boost U.S. domestic affairs through deals with tech leaders (many of whom were present in the audience) and highlighted the growth of our military to reestablish American credibility in the region and secure these crucial deals.
Six hundred billion dollars and one sanction relief offer to the new Syrian government later, Trump continued to land an influx of capital deals in Doha and Abu Dhabi that seem to offset the fallout from recent tariffs placed on more than 80 countries. The most crucial agreements included a $96 billion dollar deal between Qatar Airways and Boeing, supplemented with $200 billion in U.S.-UAE collaboration on infamously coveted semiconductor chips. Revival of U.S.-Gulf relations was the likely source of Iran's quick subsequent announcement of readiness for a nuclear deal, proving that Trump’s “business-first” diplomacy works, self-defining it as “using trade to settle scores and make peace” in a Fox News interview upon his return.
Geopolitical Implications
Trump’s speech and subsequent deals in the Gulf were arguably part of a two-pronged plan: to enter a new era of stability through economic diplomacy, and offset China’s attempts to gain influence in the region.
Sanction relief was a priority item in the last-minute meeting with self-proclaimed Syrian president, Abu Mohammad Al-Julani, who was willing to agree to a list of conditions presented by the United States to achieve it. Julani agreed to eradicate any remaining chemical weapons, exclude foreign fighters from the new administration, and cooperate on Western counterterrorism operations — an apparent win for western values but not yet set in stone for the new government.
Syria’s liberation attracted Iran’s Khamenei to declare readiness to make a deal in exchange for similar sanction removal, after nearly one month of nuclear deal talks with American representatives. In just three days, Trump was able to bring two long-time U.S. adversaries to consider significant policy changes, something over a decade of bombers and missiles failed to achieve.
China’s attempts to entrench itself into the Middle East were also thwarted by a crucial technology framework agreement, featuring 500,000 American-based NVIDIA advanced artificial intelligence chips imported into the UAE every year. The deal also includes building the largest AI data center outside the United States, stationed in Abu Dhabi. David Sacks confirmed this would “cement American technology as the global standard” to pass competitors in the global AI race, contributing to a growing rift with China.
Future in Limbo
Despite Trump’s successes in investment and policy-shifting deals, there are still a few loose ends when it comes to top issues in American foreign policy in the region: a lack of an Iranian nuclear deal, ambiguity in Syria’s future, deferred normalization with Israel, and an inevitable Chinese response to the AI race.
Despite Tehran’s openness to a deal while Trump was in Saudi Arabia, no deal was finalized, and Khameini recently expressed a negative outlook on ever reaching agreement, citing outrageous “zero enrichment” demands from the U.S. Whether a strategic delay or a missed opportunity, Trump’s proposal to Iran upon return to the U.S. did not seal the deal, even with his urge for Khameini to “act quickly or something bad will happen.”
Additionally, Syria continues to be run by former Al-Qaeda terrorist and Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leader Abu Mohammad Al-Julani and his extremist counterparts. There’s no confirmation yet that Julani has fulfilled all the conditions listed above, but something darker seems to be brewing. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently warned that Syria would once again fall into a civil war “of epic proportions” if western powers don’t endorse the transitional government. The issue is, Julani has yet to meet all American standards to do so, topped with not enough women in government and recent tensions with the neighborhood Druze, Allawite, and Christian minorities.
Despite flirting with Saudi-Israel normalization at the U.S.-Saudi Investment Forum, Trump’s nod to the Abraham Accords in front of MBS was not enough to usher in a renewal, which the prince reportedly asked to keep off the table during the visit. The president’s tenacity in mentioning it likely signals his incoming campaign to repeat the past success, mentioning his granted favor to MBS to relieve sanctions on Syria.
A recent shooting of two Israeli Embassy staffers in Washington, D.C. may shift peace efforts backwards, however. Though normalization doesn’t seem achievable in the near future, the momentum from a successful trip leaves the window for revisited peace talks open.
The American-Emirati partnership clearly amplified the race to global AI domination, so the technology rivalry between the U.S. and China will likely escalate. Though Trump tried to get ahead of the race by implementing Chinese chip restrictions to hinder Chinese efforts, their mass-market availability of affordable AI programs like DeepSeek allows them to remain a contender.
New Era, or Political Theatre?
Trump’s successful trip to the Middle East may have made up for the poor withdrawal from Afghanistan, but loose ends in key issues like an Iranian nuclear deal and Syria’s undetermined future makes one wonder whether his diplomacy-first approach will actually shape a lasting policy of stability, or dissolve into election-year theatrics. America has successfully positioned itself as a peace broker and dealmaker abroad, but only time will tell if the variables of Iran, Israel, Syria, and China will hinder the historical attempt at a strategic shift for the United States.
Lora Karch is a Middle East HIstory and Peace Fellow at Young Voices and independent analyst focused on national security and political issues in the Middle East and Europe. Working at The Middle East Institute in Washington, D.C., she is passionate about individual liberties, fostering peace, and safeguarding legacies of ancient civilizations. Her work has appeared in The National Interest, The Libertarian Institute, Free the People, and more. Follow her on Twitter: @LoraKarch
