On June 24, dozens of elected officials, defense ministers, and policymakers will gather in The Hague for the annual NATO Summit. During the two-day event, senior leaders from NATO’s member states will come together to “reinforce their cooperation and their commitment” to the international organization.
The timing of this year’s summit is critical. As these elected officials, defense ministers, and policymakers gather, the world has recently seen an increase in conflict and chaos. In Europe, Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine has reached a new scale. The Russians have launched their deadliest attack on Ukraine, where they have fired thousands of missiles and deployed hundreds of drones. Dozens of Ukrainian citizens have been killed during Russia’s multi-day attack. The strikes have also resulted in millions of dollars worth of damage throughout Ukraine. In response, the Ukrainians have called on their allies for additional assistance so that they can defend themselves from Russia’s ongoing attacks.
Meanwhile, tensions have escalated in the Middle East. For two weeks, the Israelis and Iranians have exchanged missile attacks, which have resulted in the deaths of hundreds. Most recently, the United States targeted three nuclear facilities in Iran. This prompted the Iranians to launch another attack on Israel, something which resulted in additional death and destruction in the region. Numerous countries around the world have called for de-escalation, but it remains uncertain whether this will occur.
Given the increased tensions in these two wars, NATO members will be compelled to engage in discussions to determine how the Alliance will respond, as well as what it will do to help resolve both situations. On the top of the agenda will be how member states can “further strengthen NATO’s deterrence and defense.” It is known that Russia and Iran will increase their attacks on Ukraine and Israel. The Alliance must determine how it will respond to increased escalations near its periphery.
But it is unclear how these discussions will progress. For example, according to the BBC, elected officials and defense ministers were initially “supposed to discuss a new Russia strategy, but [that has now been removed] from the agenda.” In addition, the recent U.S. strike on nuclear facilities within Iran caught Alliance members by surprise. Like the topic of NATO’s future assistance to Ukraine and how it will deter Russia, discussions on the Israel-Iran war are also not currently on the agenda at the summit. This will further complicate matters for Alliance members as these two events seriously impact NATO’s objective of deterrence and defense.
Beyond the Russo-Ukraine and Israel-Iran Wars, NATO members will also discuss defense spending and production. According to the NATO Summit’s official page, Alliance members will need to determine how they will “ensure that [their] militaries have the forces, critical capabilities, and supporting infrastructure” they need. It has also been proposed that NATO needs to address defense innovation and the defense industrial complex.
How they will proceed on these discussions, however, is unclear. Currently, only 23 out of NATO’s 32 member states have met the two percent threshold of their gross domestic product (GDP) allocated to defense spending. Now, as several countries struggle to catch up, the United States has called on the other NATO members to increase defense spending from two percent to five percent. This will put additional pressure on several Alliance members, as several countries will struggle to reach this new target.
To add to the pressures surrounding the upcoming summit, an anti-NATO protest was held on June 22 in front of The Hague ahead of the forthcoming NATO Summit. The peaceful demonstrators condemned America’s strike on Iran, and they voiced their concerns “about rising tensions in the Middle East.” They argued that a war should not be started with Iran, and they called for peace. It remains to be seen if their demands will be met.
In other words, a great deal will be riding on the attendance of elected officials and defense ministers at the upcoming gathering in The Hague. At a time of global conflict and the deconstruction of various institutions and organizations, the Alliance has been called upon to respond to these challenges. What the 32 member states will agree to and how they will respond to these obstacles, however, remains to be seen.
The NATO members face a series of severe crises. Are they ready to face these challenges?
Mark Temnycky is a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center and a freelance journalist covering Eurasian affairs.
