In Venezuela today, telling the truth about the economy can get you arrested. Throughout June, the regime conducted a roundup of economists and researchers who were shedding light on Maduro’s chronic economic mismanagement. These arrests are simply the latest iteration of Maduro’s unshakable authoritarian instincts, only emboldened since his successful rigging of the Venezuelan presidential election in 2024. This latest crackdown vindicates President Trump’s return to a ‘maximum pressure’ strategy.
This mass repression campaign is a sign of an anxious regime; Maduro knows that the true state of the Venezuelan economy is beyond abysmal. President Trump acknowledged these truisms with his decision not to renew Chevron oil licenses. Fundamentally, the administration knows that throwing a lifeline to a weakened regime is not in the U.S.’s interest, and they also know that dictators do not change their ways .
Around 58 individuals, including former finance minister Rodrigo Cabezas, have been charged with financial crime or terror offences for their roles in exposing the ongoing economic crisis in Venezuela. Some of those arrested were simply hosting websites showing the Venezuelan people the true value of the dollar on the black market compared to the disastrously inflated Bolivar.
President Maduro has long lost control of the economy, with inflation expected to reach up to 200% in 2025. Venezuelans bear the brunt of this hyperinflation, which these dissidents were aiming to document and expose. The Financial Times recently reported the story of Rosa, a public sector worker in Venezuela who earns 130 bolivars a month. Thanks to President Maduro and his decision to pursue power rather than the welfare of his people, this amount translates to just $1.26 a month.
President Maduro knows that there is an alternative to the misery his people face. Under the Biden administration, sanctions on Venezuela were eased in an attempt to court Maduro into working with the Venezuelan opposition to move the country towards free and fair elections. In signing the 2023 Barbados agreement with his opposition, President Maduro committed to free and fair elections whereby opposition parties could freely select and run their candidates without state interference.
The sanctions relief and seeming progress on democratising Venezuela went hand in hand with a brief economic recovery. Inflation slowed to its lowest level in 12 years and oil revenues increased, contributing to economic stability. While deep structural problems remained, Maduro had a choice before the 2024 election to continue down this path of economic normalisation or to blow up his understanding with the U.S. and cling to power. He chose the latter.
Maduro’s decision to rig the 2024 Presidential election set Venezuela on the course of the economic crisis its people are currently enduring, further demonstrating the president’s priority for power rather than the security of his people. For this reason, President Trump was right not to extend Chevron oil licenses. If he had decided to offer the regime another lifeline in a time of economic crisis, it would only have allowed history to repeat itself. President Maduro could string the U.S. along again with goodwill gestures and empty promises, only to continue to behave like a tyrant at home.
Now that Trump has returned to placing maximum pressure on Venezuela, many commentators credit Secretary of State Marco Rubio for this change. During his confirmation hearings earlier this year, Rubio acknowledged that the Biden administration “got played” by the regime, which “kept none of the promises that they made.” Rubio was successful in influencing Trump to take his hard stance on Maduro, precisely because he understands what Biden didn’t.
Rubio knows that dictators like Maduro will always prefer to stay in power. The rampant economic devastation facing Venezuela does not impact President Maduro or his lackeys, as those connected with the regime enjoy wealth unimaginable to the average Venezuelan. No reform will come from men who literally dine on dysfunction.
The U.S. should remain committed to recognising Venezuelan opposition leader Edmundo González as the legitimate president of Venezuela. It is in the interests of neither the U.S. nor the Venezuelan people to legitimise a corrupt, authoritarian president whose own mismanagement has made his regime weaker than ever.
Mackenzie France is a Young Voices contributor and director of strategy at the Pinsker Centre, a UK-based foreign policy think tank. He is also a Krauthammer Fellow at the Tikvah Fund.
