Iran is in a strikingly similar position to the dictatorial Pahlavi regime right before it was deposed in 1979.
The last U.S. Ambassador to Iran, William Sullivan, sent a now-famous telegram to the White House in late 1978 titled "Thinking the Unthinkable - Iran without Shah." The cable sent shockwaves through a Carter administration and foreshadowed the collapse of a monarchy that had ruled with an iron fist for five decades. Less than 100 days later, the Shah and his notorious secret police, SAVAK, were gone, a testament to a regime's inability to survive when it was thoroughly despised by its people.
I was a young university student in the United States at the time. More than four decades later, the memories are still fresh.
Today, the outlook is just as clear for Iran’s ruling theocracy. The regime is besieged by crises from every direction. Massive uprisings there in recent years have shaken its foundations, fueled by a disenchanted and restless population. The mullahs' strategic position has been severely weakened, particularly with the ouster last December of the Assad regime in Syria, which had been a linchpin of Tehran's influence. UN sanctions have been reimposed, and the 2015 nuclear deal has been jettisoned. The regime is facing unprecedented isolation.
So, with the mullahs’ demise looming, what is the roadmap to end the theocracy? How can a smooth transition to a stable future be charted? What is the correct policy for the West?
On November 15, the Free Iran Convention 2025, a first-of-its-kind gathering in Washington, D.C., will address these significant issues. The convention will bring together more than 1,000 Iranian American scholars, activists, professionals, and community leaders. It will feature Iranian voices from three generations across the United States, joined by prominent American and international dignitaries.
Iranian society is primed for a transformative shift, and this process is already well underway.
The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), a coalition of democratic opposition movements rejecting both monarchy and theocracy, is offering a detailed plan for a transition to a stable, secular, and democratic system. The NCRI's President-elect, Maryam Rajavi, has outlined a ten-point plan including universal suffrage, political freedom, the abolition of the death penalty, and the separation of religion and state.
Change in Iran does not require foreign military intervention or funding. Instead, it needs a supportive international policy. An organized opposition movement committed to overthrowing the mullahs is growing in Iran. The regime's propaganda, often amplified by a network of friendly sources, has sought to cast doubt on this movement's viability. But such manufactured narratives are crumbling in the face of the regime's domestic and international setbacks, which have prompted desperate and unsuccessful crackdowns on the increasingly emboldened activists.
Since late 2017, Iran has been rocked by three nationwide uprisings and countless other protests. A recurring feature has been the explicit call for regime change with slogans like "death to the dictator, whether the Shah or the Supreme Leader." These are closely associated with the NCRI and its main constituent group, the People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK). Since 2014, the MEK has cultivated a nationwide network of "Resistance Units" to organize protests to challenge the regime's repressive institutions.
The 2022 uprising alone resulted in the deaths of 750 protesters. In the ensuing years, the judiciary has carried out nearly 4,000 executions – one every three hours – in a futile attempt to intimidate the populace. This brutality has only fueled public outrage. In recent months, the regime has intensified its campaign of terror against political activists, particularly those affiliated with the MEK. At least 17 affiliates of the organization are on death row and more will likely follow as the mullahs get weaker and resort to executions to stop the momentum.
The Iranian people are forging a path to a free, secular, and democratic Iran. The international community can benefit from standing with them. Now is the moment to think the unthinkable: an Iran without the rule of the ayatollahs, ushering in a secular, democratic republic.
Alireza Jafarzadeh, author of The Iran Threat (Palgrave Macmillan: New York), is Deputy Director of the Washington Office of the National Council of Resistance of Iran. He is on X at @A_Jafarzadeh.
