Japan is on its fourth prime minister in five years. Despite the political turmoil, many Americans are hopeful over the ascendance of Sanae Takaichi to the top leadership post in Tokyo.
Yet U.S. national security could confront major challenges if Takaichi is inclined to take risks, particularly on the delicate matter of Taiwan. Japanese history and Takaichi’s relatively hawkish views suggest the United States may need to work to tamp down tensions in the western Pacific in the coming years, if not sooner. In recent comments, Takaichi declared that a Chinese assault on Taiwan could lead to Japan intervening on Taiwan's side. These comments sparked a quick backlash from Beijing, which has responded with sharp-barbed "wolf warrior" diplomacy.
There are many positives in Takaichi’s prospects for leadership. First and foremost, it is exciting that a woman has finally reached the pinnacle of power in modern Japan. Takaichi’s qualifications are also extensive. She has been a successful legislator and held senior cabinet posts in previous administrations. Her background as a TV broadcaster suggests she is well versed in political messaging.
Another crucial aspect of her biography is that she lived for two years in the United States and even worked as a congressional intern. Undoubtedly, this afforded Takaichi extensive insights into American society and politics.
It’s hardly surprising that Takaichi and U.S. President Donald Trump showed a natural rapport during Trump’s visit in late October, since Takaichi has embraced a slogan of “Japan First!” and seems to have a keen understanding of Trump’s priorities. Hopefully, Trump’s visit will allow for significant progress in U.S.-Japan relations, which have been under a cloud due to trade tensions.
In addition, Takaichi and Trump share a reverence for the late Shinzo Abe, Japan’s most successful prime minister in recent decades who was assassinated in 2022.
But therein lies the rub. If Trump has been long obsessed with trade, Abe’s own obsession was with the rise of China and particularly Taiwan’s role in the emergent strategic rivalry in the western Pacific. Given the salience of the Taiwan issue in U.S.-China relations and in U.S. national security more generally, it is imperative that Americans understand Tokyo’s long-time role in this most dangerous powder keg.
Japan’s role in Taiwan’s modern history is extensive, since Tokyo ruled over the island for 50 years from 1895–1945, having annexed it from China after the Japanese victory in the Sino-Japanese War. Tokyo saw Taiwan as a model colony and its rule over the island is still remembered fondly by older Taiwanese generations since many public improvements were made during this period, including building Taiwan’s impressive rail and road network.
Yet this sentimental reverence and even kinship has a dark side. As in many colonial episodes, Japan’s conquest of Taiwan involved some terrible atrocities. And many Taiwanese got swept up, willingly or unwillingly, in Japan’s aggressive war machine that ravaged Asia.
One key to understanding the dangers of today’s Taiwan conundrum is that the island is associated in the Chinese mind with Japan’s awful deeds in China, which are well documented. This is partly why Taiwan has come to symbolize Chinese “national rejuvenation” and the righting of historical wrongs, at least from Beijing’s point of view.
So how does this background relate to Takaichi and the future of U.S.-Japan relations? The potential problem is that she has embraced many of the controversial, right-wing viewpoints of her long-time mentor Abe.
During his tenure as prime minister, Abe sought to disassociate Japan from the tragic history of World War II. He wanted to reform the Japanese Constitution to remove or water down its Article 9 renouncing all potential for war-making, elevate Japanese defense spending, and, most notably, tie Japan’s national security to Taiwan’s future status.
Takaichi has adopted many of these same positions, including seeking a closer defense relationship with Taiwan. Likewise, she has already offended China with her consistent visits to the Yasukuni Shrine, which memorializes Japan’s military leaders, including some convicted of atrocities. Some good news is that now that she is installed as Japan’s leader, she might be exercising some needed restraint in this regard.
Many American strategists will be glad to see Japan heighten its efforts in the defense realm, as Takaichi has promised, to allow for greater burden sharing within the alliance. But U.S. leaders should be mindful that this could lead to unintended consequences. With its recent major purchase of long-range American Tomahawk missiles, for example, Tokyo seemed to depart from a more strictly defensive military strategy. Its recent investments in ships that are effectively aircraft carriers may bespeak the same trend.
Washington should try to steer Japan’s military developments toward a more defensive orientation, such as by encouraging its ally to focus on hardening air bases and further developing air and missile defenses. The U.S. should additionally discourage Tokyo’s sometimes evident inclination to ‘stir the pot’ on the delicate Taiwan issue.
Japan’s new female prime minister is said to especially admire former UK Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. It’s well known that a “splendid little war” fought by Britain against Argentina over the Falkland Islands helped rescue Thatcher’s faltering career and raise her prestige on the world stage as well as at home.
Let’s hope Takaichi’s term isn’t defined by a similarly hawkish endeavor, given how much higher the stakes are with China. Americans are right to be concerned that the U.S. could get inadvertently sucked into this risk-laden gambit that could result from spiraling Japan-China tensions and Tokyo’s sentimentalism regarding its former colony.
Lyle Goldstein is Director of the Asia Program at Defense Priorities.
