The U.S. is pursuing a failed negotiating strategy to end Russia’s aggression in Ukraine.
We are negotiating with ourselves without a plan B. We are letting President Putin sit in judgment while the U.S. scrambles to come up with a deal he will accept without any meaningful concessions by Russia. President Putin is an autocrat in total control. He is clearly willing to pay the price in dead and wounded and damage to the Russian economy to achieve his objectives in Ukraine. He is confident he can wait for the U.S. and the Europeans to eventually give in to his demands.
We are telegraphing the fact that the U.S. wants to end its support for Ukraine without regard to Ukraine’s future. The inclusion of commercial incentives is unseemly. This is a military and diplomatic effort to end the worst conflict in Europe since World War II, not a business deal.
Putin is probably vulnerable, his display of confidence is an act. He has led Russia into a disastrous war that reveals Russia’s weaknesses as a global power. He has been unable to conquer a much smaller neighboring country in over three years. He trashed the Russian economy and caused a million or more Russian military casualties. If this war ends with nothing to show for these sacrifices, he could lose his position and even his head.
The Trump administration wants to save the funds needed to support Ukraine. However, a majority of the American public is against a sellout of Ukraine. There is bipartisan support in Congress for a realistic plan to support Ukraine and rally our European allies to stop Russian aggression. A majority of Republicans support withdrawing aid. However, this opinion would likely change quickly if President Trump made the case for continuing support.
Neither side can win this war, so it will end in a negotiated settlement. But, on what terms? If Russia doesn’t pay a price for their aggression, they will be free to make other aggressive acts in the future. If terms don’t provide for a secure and prosperous future for Ukraine, they will live in Russia’s shadow and become a puppet state.
The U.S. is not rallying our European allies behind a successful effort to force Russia to accept a negotiated end to its aggression. The U.S. is bypassing Europe and Ukraine to negotiate directly with Russia to produce a deal that Russia will accept. This is not leadership. We should be working with our European partners to develop a negotiating position including a plan B. What will we do if Russia does not end its aggression on terms that guarantee Ukraine’s future as a sovereign, independent country?
We can argue that this is Europe’s problem and they should take the lead. However, this is not the time for the U.S. to step away. The U.S. has guaranteed Europe’s security since the end of World War II. This has allowed Europe to neglect their own defense capabilities. This dependency cannot be reversed soon enough to allow the U.S. to back away from supporting Ukraine.
Russia’s brutal aerial attacks on civilians in Ukraine qualifies as a war crime under the Geneva Conventions. Ukraine does not have the ability to stop these attacks or retaliate.
What should we do? Start by forgetting about any deal acceptable to Putin that sacrifices Ukraine’s future. A strong plan B is needed to force Russia to negotiate:
- Immediately provide additional ammunition and equipment that Ukraine needs to defend itself. Financial support to sustain their war effort should be included. This would send a much-needed signal to Russia that they cannot wait us out.
- Give Ukraine whatever we can to defend against aerial attacks. This could include long range weapons such as Tomahawk cruise missiles that could only be used to retaliate against Russian attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine. If Russia attacks civilian targets, Ukraine could be able to use one or two Tomahawks against targets of their choice inside Russia.
- The U.S. and Europe should jointly implement stronger economic sanctions that cripple the Russian economy starting with tight restrictions on Russian oil and gas exports.
- This should include secondary sanctions on purchasers of Russian oil and gas. Our Europeans and other allies should be given assurances that their Russian oil and gas imports will be replaced with supplies from the U.S. and the Middle East at no additional cost.
- Release frozen Russian financial assets in Europe to support Ukraine’s war effort and reconstruction. It is the least Russia should pay for their aggression.
- Provide future security guarantees to Ukraine that give Ukraine a future as a member of the European Union plus a defensive military capability to withstand any future aggression by Russia. This can be done without Ukraine joining NATO, a red line for Russia.
Without presenting President Putin with a vision of the future he will face if he does not negotiate a cease fire and eventual permanent end to the fighting, he will have every incentive to wait for us to give in and accept a conclusion favorable to Russia.
William Fletcher (retired) was senior vice president at Rockwell International. He served as an officer and engineer in the Navy working on the design and operation of nuclear-powered ships, and was an engineer involved with the design and construction of commercial nuclear power plants. Later, he specialized in industrial automation and international operations with several overseas assignments.
