Whether Iran is in the mid stages of a revolution, or warming up for a future one, the regime is on an existential brink.
As the country enters its third week of uprisings the mullahs have shut down the internet and even landlines. Nevertheless, shocking images have been trickling into the western media outlets following this weekend’s bloodbath.
Families are seen walking around littered bodies trying to identify their loved ones. “I am not afraid…I have been dead for forty-seven years,” says an elderly Iranian woman unaware or unbothered by the blood streaming down her mouth as she continues her march with tens of thousands of others.
There have been more than 900 protests since Dec. 28th when the unrest started according to Foundation for Defense of Democracies FDD Iran Tracker. Demonstrations have erupted in all of Iran's 31 provinces. Unconfirmed reports put the number of dead at 3,000 with many detained or unaccounted. Yet, despite the increasing brutality of the regime’s security forces, protestors are not retreating.
For misery has become an equal opportunity reality in Iranians’ daily lives.
This time however, Iranians not only want the regime out, many are calling for who they want in: the Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, son of the late Shah. The chant of “for regime this is the dead-end, Reza Shah II will return” has been resounding off the domed ceilings of Iran’s grand bazaars, the traditional hub of unrest, as loudly as the façade of modern apartment complexes.
A storm of mounting inflation, high unemployment, and plummeting Rial has shifted Iranians’ anger on the regime’s continuing generous support of its proxies. The slogan “Not Gaza, not Lebanon, my life is only for Iran,” captures Iranian nationalism—its most enduring ideology—as the weapon of choice against Ayatollahs’ fervent Islamism.
Will nationalism win? Or will the Islamic autocracy, whose founder Ayatollah Khomeini declared, “let this land burn, let Iran go up in smoke. As long as Islam is victorious,” prevail?
The answer might be already clear. Nationalism has won the battle for Iranians’ hearts and minds. Close to 80 percent of Iranians in a recent GAMAAN survey prefer a different system over the current regime.
These Iranian nationalist sentiments have a friend in the White House. President Donald Trump’s overarching ‘America First’ agenda’, his muscular defense of the Western Hemisphere, what he has dubbed ‘The Donroe Doctrine,’ and his removal of Venezuela’s dictator Nicolas Maduro, have sparked hope among ‘Iran First’ protestors.
They are renaming streets “Trump” or “Donald Trump” and gleefully slapping stickers of the U.S. President’s image on cars, lamp posts and sidewalks, with the caption “Trump, we are waiting for you.”
While the odds of U.S. and Israeli forces landing in Tehran and whisking away the sleepy Ayatollah in the middle of the night are slim, the symbolism of having the leader of the free world on your side is strong.
Because here symbolism matters.
In 2009, President Barack Obama’s “Yes, We Can” slogan energized Iranians to take to the streets by the hundreds of thousands and protest President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s rigged re-election. Unfortunately, it took Obama eleven days to address Iranians and acknowledge their quest for freedom. The crowds dispersed—but not before losing countless numbers to the Basij Forces’ indiscriminate shootings.
By contrast, President Trump quickly stated his unequivocal support of the Iranian protestors. His ultimatum to the Islamic regime that he is “locked and loaded and ready to go” might sound like a logistical nightmare for the Pentagon. But it acknowledges Iranians’ decades-long fight against the regime and elevates the importance of their cause.
Obama’s oratory emphasized a “Yes, We Can!” attitude but fell short on supporting the change Iranians aspired to. Conversely, Trump’s actions have so far exhibited a “Yes, We Did!” assertiveness, which has elated Iranians and angered the regime elite.
This may not be enough to counter the regime’s tanks and bullets, but it is enough to keep the Iranians on the streets and the regime on its toes.
Facts on the ground are not favorable to the regime. Iran’s sanctioned economy has been spiraling downward as its resources are exacerbated by environmental degradation, corruption, theft and mismanagement. 50% plus inflation rate makes basic staples like eggs and bread unaffordable. Air pollution is so severe that schools and government offices routinely shut down, while water and electricity have become unreliable hurting the livelihood of farmers and ranchers as well as the educated urban middle-class Iranians.
Washington’s calculus of removing dictators—reiterated by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R.S.C.) among others, has also energized the last vestige of Iran’s ancient monarchical rule. “My people are prepared to die for this cause, and so am I,” the Crown Prince announced recently on Fox News.” “I will be there with my compatriots to lead the ultimate battle,” offering a visual to the viwers.
Iranians’ nostalgia for the heady days of the late Shah, when the country was in the throes of modernity and prosperity, have pushed crowds onto the streets. His son’s declarations of unity with Iranians and his promise of a national referendum for the future of Iran have kept them hopeful but dangerously vulnerable.
Whether this becomes the “ultimate battle” and slides into a revolution remains to be seen.
Nazee Moinian holds a PhD in political science/Iran Studies from the University of St Andrews in Scotland. She is an adjunct fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, DC.
