On January 17th, President Trump told Politico that “it’s time to look for new leadership in Iran.” He’s right. The U.S. should unabashedly support such change. Ayatollah Khameni already blames the U.S. for fomenting all the recent social unrest in Iran. Let’s help him prove his point.
Sadly, some of our partners in the region are worried about regime change in Iran because it could lead to regional instability. Really? As if the current Iranian regime that has been in power for close to 47 years hasn’t sufficiently terrorized and destabilized the region and the world. Let’s not forget that the Iranian regime now in power is directly responsible for the deaths of well over 1,000 American citizens.
Could it be that some of the competing powers in the region are really worried that a change in the Iranian regime could lead to the emergence of a large regional superpower that is closely allied with the U.S. and the West that becomes an economic powerhouse, and that drives the price of oil down to below $50 a barrel? That may be a source of worry for some of the powers in the region but should be a source of comfort for the U.S.
A change in the Iranian regime will be good for the U.S., for the Iranian people, for the region and for the world. The U.S. and its close regional partners should be fully behind change, albeit quietly. This regime is not on the verge of collapse, but it is significantly weakened, isolated and under tremendous pressure---structural vulnerabilities that can all be exploited to advance the total collapse of the regime. The U.S. can help in establishing and guiding an opposition figure who can rally the Iranian people.
At the moment, Crown Prince Pahlavi is perhaps the only good bet. First, he’s outside of Iran and can communicate to the Iranian people (once internet access is restored) more freely and frequently than any opposition figure within Iran. Second, he is articulate and can appeal to audiences in the U.S. and Europe who will need to support his efforts. Third, in his embracing the Iran Prosperity Project, there is a plan for transitioning Iran from a theocratic autocracy to a democracy that will embrace warm relations with the West.
By his own admission, the Crown Prince will almost certainly not be a long term solution for Iranian governance. Nevertheless, he can play a very positive transitional role. That is what he claims he wants to do. He has a plan, and the U.S. should support him and help him refine his plan to the advantage of the Iranian people. At the same time, the U.S. should quietly reach out to opposition figures in Iran to articulate its support for regime change and welcome their contributions to a democratic Iran once the regime is toppled.
If it is not doing so already, the U.S. should be at the forefront of promoting regime change in Iran through increased economic pressure against the regime and covert action operations. The regime’s greatest weakness at this point is its inability to fix the Iranian economy and deliver basic services such as water supply for the benefit of the populace.
The U.S. should continue to weaken the Iranian economy through tightened sanctions to further destabilize the regime. At the same time, the U.S. should send a clear message that once the regime is replaced by a government that is friendly to the U.S., abandons its nuclear weapons program and stops fomenting unrest in the region through its proxies, the U.S. will pull out all stops to help Iran recover economically.
Further, the U.S. should pursue a broad range of covert action operations against the regime. This can range from cyber operations to arming and assisting opposition groups within the country. At the right time, direct military action can also come to play to deliver a fatal blow to the regime.
President Trump is right to be measured and deliberate in directing U.S. action in Iran. But his instincts on regime change are absolutely right. I trust that he will properly marshal U.S. policy toward making Iran free of its tyrannical leadership and a friend of the U.S. again.
Joe Zacks is a retired CIA Deputy Assistant Director for Counterterrorism and an adjunct fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
