Last month, conservative Jose Kast defeated communist Jeannette Jara to become the next president of Chile. While Kast is a social conservative, he ran on a platform centered around illegal immigration and crime, two of the issues voters were most concerned about. In addition, Kast promises deregulation, tax cuts, and expansion of mining in the country.
The election of Kast provides an opportunity for President Trump to further his own agenda. For one thing, Kast’s focus on crime and immigration is shared with Donald Trump. Closer cooperation between US law enforcement and Chilean authorities can work to counter cartel operations in Chile, therefore preventing drugs and illegal immigration from reaching the US. In addition, Kast and Chile can help counter Venezuelan dictator Nicholas Maduro. If the US military is going to step up operations against Maduro, it would benefit from as many allies as possible.
The benefits to the US of a Kast victory go beyond security. One of the priorities of the incoming Kast administration is mining. Chile is already one of the world’s leading producers of copper and lithium, and it is working to expand its mining of other rare earth metals. The global economy depends on these metals in the production of everything from cellphones to military technology. China is the world leader in mining and processing of these metals. China is one of the United States’ chief adversaries, so the US cannot rely on China to supply it with these critical minerals. Therefore, mining deals with alternative sources are vital.
Elsewhere in Latin America, Honduras elected Trump-endorsed conservative Nasry Asfura, who won a closely contested election to become president. Like in Chile, Asfura replaces a deeply unpopular socialist government. To illustrate the unpopularity of the incumbent LIBRE party, their candidate finished a distant third with a mere 19% of the vote. The candidate Asfura defeated is from another right-wing party.
Having an ally like Asfura running Honduras provides the Trump administration with another opportunity for closer ties. Trump had made combating international gangs a cornerstone of his presidency. A good relationship with President Asfura makes drug smuggling to the US even harder by eliminating Honduras as a haven for gangs. While Honduras has made progress over the past few years, the United States should do what it can to help the Hondurans further reduce crime.
Another opportunity to gain a Trump ally in Latin America is in Brazil, where socialist Lula Da Silva is facing Eduardo Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro is the son of former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro, who was imprisoned back in 2020 after accusations that he launched a coup in protest of election corruption. While Bolsonaro is behind in the polls, the lead is not insurmountable. There is little Trump can do to help Bolsonaro, but there is something he can do: stay out of the way.
Trump may be tempted to endorse Bolsonaro or make Lula the target of his insults, but that strategy is unlikely to be effective. To do so may create a rally around the flag effect, solidifying Lula’s image in the eyes of the Brazilian voters. If you don’t believe me, just look at what happened in Canada. For months, it looked as if Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives were on their way to a landslide victory. Then, President Trump decided to make annexing Canada his cause de jure. Constant 51st state jokes saved a floundering Liberal Party from defeat. Now, instead of a Conservative, pro-American, Prime Minister in Poilievre, we have Mark Carney making trade deals with China, the United States’ greatest geopolitical rival.
Trump cares a lot about the Monroe Doctrine, as he should. If he wants to enforce this policy and advance America’s interests, he is going to need friendly leaders sitting in capitals across the Western Hemisphere. The elections of Jose Kast and Nasry Asfura are opportunities for the President to keep America’s enemies out of our hemisphere. If the US wants this to continue, he needs to learn from the Canada debacle and be more aware of his affect on foreign elections. The effectiveness of his foreign policy depends on it.
