Last week, in a post on Truth Social, President Donald Trump indicated he may have changed his mind on acceding to the United Kingdom’s deal to hand over sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, a deal he recently described as “act of great stupidity.”
Doing so would be a mistake. Accepting the handover would gravely imperil America's position in the Indo-Pacific, a legacy any president would not want to own.
In his post the president noted, “I understand that the deal Prime Minister Starmer has made, according to many, the best he could make.”
Undoubtedly many swamp voices and the British prime minister have been pushing this very narrative; that does not make it true.
The Labour government has been working in overdrive over the past three weeks to convince the U.S. not to block its foolhardy agreement, after the president raised concerns.
Downing Street reacted to last week’s post crowing that it had secured the administration's backing for its insane agreement. But that is mostly spin, and the ultimate U.S. position is still undecided.
At issue is the joint U.S.-UK base on the island of Diego Garcia, a crucial node in the middle of the Indian Ocean would also prove pivotal should hostilities break out in the Pacific.
Members of opposition parties in the UK have suggested China is secretly negotiating a lease of the Chagos island of Peros Banhos, a mere 140 miles from Diego Garcia, a claim the government vehemently denies.
While the claim is unproven, if true, Peros Banhos would certainly be an interesting property for Beijing, residing the same short distance to Diego Garcia as Philadelphia is from Washington, DC.
What is known is the deep ties China and Mauritius enjoy; it is therefore not a stretch to imagine the Chinese aggressively pushing to make inroads as soon as the UK pulls up stakes.
China has been busy indoctrinating Mauritian officials via “courses” in China and the capital of Mauritius, Port Louis, is blanketed with a dystopian grid of Huawei cameras and sensors.
The ties between China and Mauritius run deep; Xi is positively salivating over the day the Chagos islands enters his side of the geopolitical chess board.
The draft Treaty gives the UK the ability to veto construction up to 24 nautical miles from Diego Garcia, but beyond that line (including islands like Peros Banhos) a Mauritian Security Review decides. The result of any inquiries would be a forgone conclusion of course should the Chinese seek to move in.
A Chinese footprint need not be as obvious as a military base. The CCP could construct “civilian” infrastructure on the Chagos islands allowing them to closely monitor on spy on U.S. activities nearby.
It does not take a whole lot of imagination to foresee Xi announcing “civilian” airstrips and ports, buildups which would decimate the usefulness of the Anglo-American base.
There are other grave issues as well, Mauritius is a signatory to the Treaty of Pelindaba, which created an African “nuclear free zone,” which amongst other things prohibits the storage of nuclear weapons.
This will clearly impact U.S. usage of Diego Garcia which at minimum hosts nuclear capable bombers and likely nuclear weapons as well.
The draft treaty also states the UK must “expeditiously inform Mauritius of any armed attack on a third State directly emanating from the Base on Diego Garcia.” Considering recent U.S. use of Diego Garcia to facilitate attacks against Iranian nuclear sites, interpretation of expeditious in the future would certainly be key.
Let us not forget how we got here. In 2019, the International Court of Justice (ICJ), which President Trump once described as “a court with no jurisdiction, no legitimacy and no authority,” ruled the UK must hand over sovereignty of the Chagos islands to Mauritius over the heads of the Chagossian people.
One the judges who decided the case is even a former CCP official. She ruled to no one's surprise ruled islands hosting a crucial base should be ripped from America’s closest ally and awarded to a Chinese client state “as rapidly as possible.”
Fighting for his political life, PM Starmer has sought to cajole, pressure, and reassure the U.S. of the Diego Garcia’s long-term protection.
Nothing can be further from the truth. Acceding to the madness would be self-sabotaging to American interests and certainly not America first.
The majority of the British people, much of Congress, and the Chagossian themselves recognize the British government is attempting to distract President Trump agreeing to a generational blunter.
It is not too late. Mr. President, look beyond the subterfuge and secure America's interest by scuttling the deal.
Daniel Kochis is a senior fellow at Hudson Institute.
