This weekend, dignitaries from around the world gathered in Germany for the Munich Security Conference. While attention is focused on Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Representative Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez, thousands around the world held rallies in support of protesters in Iran. These gatherings demonstrate the need for the US to get involved on behalf of the protests. If they don’t, the consequences of inaction could be just as bad.
Over the past couple of months, thousands, if not millions, of Iranians have protested across the country against the Islamic regime. Despite a brutal government crackdown killing thousands, glimmers of hope remain. That is why hundreds of thousands of members of the Iranian diaspora rallied in Munich, Los Angeles, and Toronto over the weekend in solidarity with the protesters and with the symbolic leader of the movement, Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi.
Students of history know that the biggest threat to any regime is the people within its borders. Indeed, the Mullahs who control Iran know this all too well, as it is exactly how they rose to power in 1979. A deal with the United States allows the Islamic regime to reassert control over the population, ensuring the continued survival of its regime. If the external threat of the US is eliminated or postponed, then the government can focus its attention inward.
That may sound like good news for some in the West, but this inward focus is only temporary. The Islamic regime is by its very nature expansionist, viewing the destruction of the West and Israel specifically as a principal goal of divine nature. Once the Mullahs stifle the current wave of protests and eliminate Western sanctions, they will once again pour resources into rebuilding their network of proxies. Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis were all weakened in their conflict with Israel, but a respite gives them time to reconstitute with Iranian help. A deal between the US and Iran would make this possible, leading to future terrorist attacks.
Another consequence of the US military failing to act would be the continuation of Iran’s nuclear program. Iranian leadership maintains commitment to its nuclear program, so the nuclear threat isn’t going away. Iranian proxies have killed hundreds of Americans over the past few decades without nuclear weapons, so preventing the regime from acquiring them is a must for US security. Even in the past few years, thousands of Israelis were killed in the October 7th attack by Hamas, and tens of thousands have been killed in the ensuing war. A nuclear-armed Iran could exceed that death toll by magnitudes with the help of its proxies.
Then, there is the direct threat posed to the lives of our leaders, including President Trump. As true believers in their cause, the Iranian regime feels justified in taking out whoever stands in their way, including President Trump, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and former National Security Adviser John Bolton. It would be foolish to trust that a regime that has already tried to assassinate members of our government will not try again if it believes doing so is in the regime’s interests.
None of this means that thousands of US soldiers should storm the beaches of Iran for an Iraq-style regime change. As mentioned, if regime change is coming, it is likely to come from within. The Iranian people are tired of the failed leadership of the Islamic Republic. If they are ready for a change, who are we to stand in their way? The US military should not unilaterally bring down the regime in Tehran, but it can help the Iranian people. While the Iranian people chant for the downfall of the Mullahs, the US military can play a small role by undertaking limited strikes on military targets.
Finally, is the blow to America’s credibility if we fail to act in Iran. The United States is indisputably the world’s superpower, but that power is severely limited if our adversaries don’t believe we’ll back up what we say. If Trump promises to help the protesters and doesn't, our enemies could look at us and think they can invade their neighbors, and the US will do nothing to stop it. It’s what led to Putin invading Ukraine in 2022 and could lead the Chinese to move on Taiwan. Ironically, not acting militarily could cause more conflict.
The Iranian regime may or may not fall as a result of the protests going on over the past few months. Either way, regime change is the responsibility of the Iranian people. However, that doesn’t mean the United States can’t put a thumb on the scale. By taking military action against Iran, the US can further weaken an anti-American regime and empower forces that wish to bring about change. If it does nothing, the United States will continue to reap the fruits of Iranian-backed terrorism and suffer a blow to its credibility.
