Iran is living through a period of profound strain. In recent months, widespread protests have swept across the country, cutting across class, gender, and geography. These demonstrations were met with a severe response from the authorities. Thousands were killed in nearly 400 cities in all 31 provinces of Iran. Over 50,000 were arrested during the uprising.
In the third week of February, in dozens of Iranian cities, cemeteries were turned into places where people recommitted to freedom by chanting “death to Khamenei.”
Internal documents show that for nearly two years, the Iranian regime had done everything to prevent the recurrence of the uprisings, but to no avail. The January uprising was a loud declaration by the population that the regime had failed to silence dissent.
These events have unfolded as negotiations between the United States and Iran recommence. Now weakened, Tehran has returned to the negotiating table, hoping to avert or delay a major confrontation with the West.
At the center of the negotiation is the Iranian regime’s nuclear program. Past agreements have focused on limiting enrichment levels or slowing technical progress while keeping the entire nuclear program intact.
Tehran’s nuclear threat cannot be eliminated without the full dismantling of the nuclear program. This has been possible since 2002, when nuclear sites in Natanz and Arak were exposed by the National Council of Resistance of Iran triggering the inspections of Iranian nuclear sites by the United Nations. Instead of calling for an end to Iran's nuclear program, the West offered concessions that led to the expansion of Tehran’s nuclear capabilities.
Another recurring issue is Iran’s support for armed proxies across the Middle East. This network has extended Tehran’s influence at a high economic and political cost. The U.S. has partly conditioned diplomatic engagement on a halt to military and financial assistance to terror groups, which would also upset Iran’s internal balance. Resources devoted to external operations are resources not available for addressing inflation, unemployment, and crumbling infrastructure at home.
Iran’s economy remains a central source of public frustration. Years of corruption, mismanagement, and sanctions have driven down living standards and eroded trust in institutions. The protests were fueled as much by economic despair as by political repression.
Iran’s protesters have challenged any despotic systems, calling instead for popular sovereignty. The regime has never been closer to collapse.
Decades of authoritarian rule, both before and after 1979 when the Shah was toppled, have led the protesters to frequently reject dictatorship in all its forms and express a desire to move beyond personalized rule.
What emerges is a set of commonly articulated aspirations. Protesters and activists often speak of fundamental freedoms, including freedom of speech, assembly, political organization, and access to information. Human rights advocates emphasize alignment with the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and an end to arbitrary detention, torture, and politicized courts.
The role of women has been especially prominent. Women have led protests and paid a heavy price for defiance, particularly in opposition to compulsory veiling and broader legal discrimination. Calls for gender equality are central to any credible vision of social justice. Similarly, ethnic and religious minorities have highlighted long-standing grievances tied to political exclusion and economic neglect.
Iran’s Revolutionary Tribunals and clerical courts are viewed as tools of intimidation rather than justice. A system grounded in judicial independence and the rule of law is essential for restoring public confidence. Environmental protection and economic opportunity also figure prominently, as years of neglect have damaged natural resources and narrowed prospects for younger generations.
These fundamental issues have been articulated in the ten-point platform of Maryam Rajavi, the president-elect of the National Council of Resistance of Iran, who has played a key role in unifying the voices of dissent to end the rule of clerics. Her plan is to transition to a representative government in which the people’s votes count.
Together, these pressures suggest a society moving toward regime change. The outcome will be shaped by the citizens of Iran, not by external force. The demands of a population have been made unmistakably clear.
Alireza Jafarzadeh, author of The Iran Threat, is Deputy Director of the Washington Office of the National Council of Resistance of Iran. He is on X at @A_Jafarzadeh.
