President Trump’s goal in Ukraine is straightforward: stop the killing and secure a peace that lasts.
The trilateral talks show that this approach is taking shape. The United States and its allies have moved towards formalized security guarantees for Ukraine. These commitments must be clearly structured and durable, designed to deter future Russian attacks and ensure that Ukraine is not left exposed once this fighting subsides. The security guarantees represent an important shift from temporary aid toward long-term arrangements that raise the cost of renewed aggression. Peace without deterrence is not peace; it is an invitation for the next war. To ensure maximum long-term credibility and cement President Trump’s legacy, these guarantees should be formalized via a treaty ratified by the Senate.
At the same time, the Trump administration has intensified economic pressure on Moscow by targeting the revenue streams that sustain Russia’s war machine. Enforcement actions against sanctions evasion networks, including those involving Venezuelan oil shipments routed toward Russia, underscore how seriously the United States is constraining the country’s ability to finance continued aggression. President Trump recently green-lighted Senator Graham’s sanctions bill, which imposes 500% tariffs on countries that continue to buy Russian oil. Last week, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee overwhelmingly passed a bill led introduced by Chairman Risch targeting the Russian shadow fleet and energy sector.
Its economy is already weakening, with GDP growth expected to fall to 0.6% this year. Russia’s resilience depends not only on its military capacity, but on its access to global energy markets and hard currency. President Trump understands that cutting off these lifelines alters Moscow’s calculations faster and more effectively than diplomatic appeals alone.
Negotiations inevitably require compromise. Neither side will achieve everything it wants. But recent history shows that agreements with Russia only have the chance to endure when backed by credible enforcement mechanisms. President Trump’s diplomacy reflects that reality. His efforts are not rooted in confidence about Vladimir Putin’s intentions, but in an understanding of how Moscow assesses risk and leverage.
With Putin, peace does not come from goodwill gestures or rhetorical concessions. It comes when continued violence leaves him strategically worse off. Russia’s own behavior confirms this. Even as diplomatic discussions advance, Moscow continues targeting civilians - including children - striking energy infrastructure in winter, and threatening any international mechanisms designed to secure a ceasefire.
These are not the actions of a confident leader seeking reconciliation. They are the actions of a regime probing for cracks in Western resolve.
President Trump’s advantage lies in his willingness to apply sustained pressure while insisting that America’s allies carry their fair share of the burden. That balance strengthens NATO rather than weakening it. A unified NATO, with Europe investing more seriously in its own defense, creates the conditions for a peace that Russia cannot easily violate. Security guarantees only work when they are backed by collective commitment and the political will to enforce them.
The moral stakes of this war remain stark. Russia has systematically targeted Ukrainian civilians, including churches and clergy, in an effort to break the country’s spiritual and cultural backbone. Faith sustains the Ukrainian people, and Moscow understands that. It is precisely why it seeks to crush it. Having spoken with Ukrainian families, I have seen firsthand how central their faith is to their resilience, even under constant threat.
Equally disturbing is Russia’s mass abduction of Ukrainian children, a cruel tactic, which I wrote about after traveling to Ukraine in 2024. Tens of thousands have been stolen from their families and placed into militarized reeducation programs designed to erase their language, identity, and beliefs. This is not collateral damage. It is a deliberate strategy aimed at destroying Ukraine’s future. First Lady Melania Trump’s advocacy has elevated this crime on the world stage, and the United States must continue pressing relentlessly for the return of these children to their families.
American leadership matters now more than ever. A just peace in Ukraine will not emerge from wishful thinking or symbolic agreements. It will come from sustained deterrence, credible security guarantees, economic pressure, and unity within the free world.
Heather Nauert served as spokesperson of the U.S. Department of State from 2017 to 2019 and as acting under secretary for public diplomacy and public affairs from 2018 to 2019.
