After the failure of negotiations in Pakistan, the United States announced the start of a blockade of Iranian oil. Iran threatened to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed. As the status of the war is being debated, the Iranian government grapples with how it can continue fighting. Luckily for them, there are reports that the Chinese may come to their rescue.
Trump has threatened tariffs on any country that helps Iran, but the truth is that China is already helping Iran in its war. A U.S. intelligence report found that China is preparing a shipment of shoulder-fired anti-air missiles to Iran. This is in direct conflict with the public image China is trying to put forward as a peacemaker, long advocating for a ceasefire in the war between Iran and the U.S. Even after the intelligence report came out, the Chinese Foreign Ministry insists it wants peace. However, supplying weapons to a military trying to kill Americans is a clear repudiation of that stance.
President Trump is understandably very upset at China over this report, promising 50% tariffs on China if it ships weapons to Iran. While tariffs imposed over trade deficits are not an emergency, POTUS could even get Congress to greenlight tariffs on a country supplying weapons to a country the U.S. is at war with. Regardless of how they are imposed, the U.S. government should be thinking about how to punish China if they do supply more weapons to Iran.
However, while Trump is right to threaten China for crossing his red line, China has already crossed that line in some ways. Direct weapons sales have been rare, but the Chinese are selling lots of dual-use technology to Iran, such as navigation systems, drone components, and rocket fuel. If Chinese weapons are not already killing Americans, China is certainly aiding and abetting it with its current financial and material support. Burning the candle at both ends is not new for China; they have been doing it in the Ukraine-Russia conflict since the beginning. The Chinese have been selling dual-use technology, unmanned aerial vehicles, electronic components, and machinery. While the war has isolated Russia in many ways, it has become big business for China.
Aside from keeping the Russian and Iranian militaries moving, China is also playing a huge role in paying for their war machines. Both Russia and Iran are dependent on oil sales to keep their economies going, something the Chinese are happy to capitalize on in a sanctions-heavy Western response. China has been buying Russian oil at a heavy discount for years and is currently buying most of Iran’s oil. Much of the West’s wartime problems are being paid for with Chinese money. China wants to claim it is a vehicle for peace while at the same time empowering the other side.
All of this is elevated in importance due to Trump’s planned visit to Beijing this coming May. Economic talks are sure to dominate the discussion, as both Xi Jinping and Trump are eager to resolve the trade tensions caused by Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs. However, if China goes through with its weapons shipments to Iran, Trump is going to have a bigger problem with Beijing. If American pilots are being shot at with Chinese weapons, Trump may not even go to Beijing, as it could be seen as rewarding bad behavior.
China’s impact on the war in Iran and Ukraine is an issue the West as a whole needs to address. Europe and the U.S. may have diverging views on each other’s war, but China is the link between both conflicts. China has been able to get away with funding both wars because neither Europe nor the U.S. has held them accountable for it. While Trump focused on trade deficits in throwing out tariffs, both he and European leaders should focus on China’s supplying the militaries of both Russia and Iran. Further economic sanctions and diplomatic pressure should be on the table on both sides of the Atlantic.
Europe isn’t completely blameless in empowering the Russians either. While China buys a lot of Russian oil, Europe hasn’t weaned itself off Russian energy. Meaning while they supply Ukraine with military support, they are effectively paying for the Russian military on the other end. If Europe wants to help Ukraine further, it might consider reopening nuclear power plants and reconsidering its stance on fossil fuels. Ending reliance on Russian energy would hinder Russia’s ability to pay for its invasion of Ukraine.
War is spreading around the globe, with Iran now joining Ukraine as a conflict point. While Russia and Iran are allies, China is a link helping both countries finance their terror. If the West is serious about ending the threat from Russia and Iran, it needs to cut off their ability to finance their militaries. President Trump and his counterparts across Europe need to hold China accountable for supplying their enemies’ war machines.
