Time is working against Iran, whether it wins or loses the current war. Time is working for the U.S, even if it loses this particular war.
Machiavelli said, it's possible to lose a war well or badly, just as it's possible to win well or badly. Sometimes a healthy defeat is superior to a mediocre victory.
Whether Iran's presently confused and unstable government wins or loses this particular war, its own future is compromised. The Old Regime's fate is sealed. It could win this war, but the issue is really whether it loses well or badly.
To lose well is to be replaced in the country by a better government, a "regime change" that is good for the mass of the Iranian people, a huge majority which has hated the theocratic-military dictatorship for decades. To lose badly is to be ousted from power leaving behind one or another kind of civil war, plus a devastated economy. To lose badly also means to become an international pariah for many years. Iran will never again be allowed to control the Straits of Hormuz, never able to attempt, let alone actually take global trade hostage. More importantly still, it will never again try to build a nuclear deterrent, whether secretly or openly.
If the present Iranian government somehow wins the war, meaning survival in power, its victory will only be partial, creating more problems than it solves. The world will be watching Iran closely, from all points of view.
Given this, a rising new government--even one based on the IRGC--has an interest in ending the war sooner rather than later. Iran's hope for hegemonic power in the Middle East is finished. It has an interest in creating a regime that will be tolerated internationally.
Time, contrary to many experts, turns out to be on the side of the U.S. If an agreement is signed in the next few days, weeks, or months, the great drama surrounding the U.S. midterm elections will collapse. If the war drags out a while, certain governments will move closer toward the U.S., beginning with the UAE.
Trump should present a U.S. victory not as America having crushed a rogue state's nuclear ambitions. It should appear to be an enforcement of non-proliferation and the NPT. He should emphasize that degrading Iran was done by a great power because the UNSC could never have agreed to do it. The U.S. cause should develop into a new movement for reform of the United Nations.
