Despite the newest agreement between the United States and Iran this week, talks between Israel and Lebanon at the State Department earlier this month could prove more valuable for long-term regional stability, especially given Iran’s domestic instability since anti-government demonstrations in December. According to President Trump, the agreement will reopen the Strait of Hormuz, remove the US blockade, and begin a 60-day period of nuclear negotiations by Friday—but Iranian officials paint a different story, promising planned fees for the international waterway. While global headlines focus on the deal and continued Hezbollah-Israel clashes in southern Lebanon, a quieter diplomatic effort between Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Israel provides a new path to peace.
The implementation of the Abraham Accords in 2020 transformed relations between Israel and its Arab neighbors, securing mutual economic prosperity and diplomatic relations behind the scenes of the most recent regional chaos. Examples include sharing defense contractors, mutually eliminating tariffs, and solving natural resource issues. Despite this progress, Lebanon remains missing from the Accords as one of Israel’s most volatile neighbors largely due to Hezbollah’s infiltration of its social and political structures, manifesting through political coalitions, parliamentary power, and an exclusive network of schools and hospitals. Excluding a willing Lebanese government from regional realignment and failing to reach a deal would leave this source of crisis and ongoing terrorism unresolved.
Israel’s recent attacks on Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon demonstrate an ever present conflict despite recently accepting a US plan for partial ceasefire. Though Hezbollah’s largest support comes from Iran, the true test of Middle East stability is whether Israel and the Lebanese government can reach an agreement that establishes sustained political engagement while isolating Hezbollah's shadow government. President Joseph Aoun is actively working towards peace with Israel and pushing back against the terror group despite their refusal to disarm, as stated in his recent sit-down with CNN’s Christiane Amanpour. Maintaining open diplomatic channels between Israel and Lebanon is critical, especially after Israel’s recent attacks near Beirut heightened the risk of renewed escalation.
The diplomatic opening was made possible by various milestones. Hezbollah’s significant military setback materialized through a combination of its decreased influence in Syria after the fall of Assad and increased pressure on Iran after the joint military campaign on its nuclear sites. Ongoing US mediation between Israel and Lebanon paired with Aoun’s outspoken willingness to engage keeps the door open to a mutually beneficial solution. Proving his commitment to peace with his neighbor, President Aoun is expanding state authority over security institutions, fostering international legitimacy for the Lebanese Armed Forces, and openly expressing his disapproval of Hezbollah’s longtime reign.
Washington’s decades-long investment in regional normalization between Israel and its neighbors has reached a pivotal moment—one that requires incorporating Lebanon into a broader framework that could reduce the risk of renewed war with Hezbollah. The recent deal with Iran does not cancel out its continued sponsorship of its terrorist proxy in Lebanon, but adjacent agreements with Israel and the US regarding border security, de-escalation, or economic cooperation similar to the Abraham Accords could produce meaningful progress towards long-term peace.
The risks to reaching normalization are great however, due to Hezbollah’s influence on Lebanon’s political dysfunction and the IRGC’s mixed messaging. Focused effort and time are required to dismantle Hezbollah’s significant political influence and armed capacity, but the following steps could almost immediately curb the group’s influence without another war:
-
Strengthen the Lebanese Army's presence in the south
-
Fortify diplomacy with state institutions rather than engaging with Hezbollah-linked networks
-
Draft border-security arrangements that reduce Hezbollah's capacity for maintaining armed control
-
Economically invest in community alternatives to Hezbollah's patronage system
Normalization with Israel has historically run through Riyadh, but Saudi Arabia’s recent disapproval of Israel’s advancement into Lebanon signals that the next phase of Middle East normalization may be hosted by Beirut. First steps could include border demarcation, deconfliction practices, prisoner exchanges, or trade discussions. President Aoun’s call to sit and talk with Netanyahu supports this possibility. If the US wants a substantial regional order and security for its longtime ally, Lebanon can no longer remain an afterthought in negotiations. The deal with Tehran matters, but the future of the Middle East may ultimately depend on whether Israel and Lebanon can sustain dialogue beyond every violated ceasefire.
Lora Karch is an independent policy writer passionate about individual liberties. Her work has appeared in The National Interest, Washington Examiner, RealClearWorld, Times of Israel, and more. You can follow her for more of her work on X: @LoraKarch
