Much to the relief of most Americans, President Donald Trump finally agreed to a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Iran to re-open the Strait of Hormuz and begin negotiations over the future of Iran’s nuclear program.
Trump made the right move here. This was an unnecessary war of choice for the United States. Polls show Americans don’t see Iran as much of a threat and opposed the war from day one.
But the hardest part is yet to come. Trump claims the next round of negotiations toward a nuclear deal with Iran will be “easier” than the last, but not only are the issues involved more complex, the politics are too.
The danger now is that Trump—who is known for mercurial decision making—might get pressured back into the war, or some other long-term strategic commitments at odds with U.S. security.
The knives are already out for the president and his peace efforts. Hawks who celebrated when Trump started the war are calling the deal a “total surrender” and drawing historical comparisons to Western appeasement of Adolph Hitler. “The worst foreign policy blunder in decades,” said Senator Bill Cassidy.
Skeptics of the war are criticizing Trump too, claiming he overpromised and underdelivered, getting far less from this deal than President Barack Obama did in 2015. A New York Times editorial titled “Trump Lost This War” called the agreement “a humiliating comedown for him and the nation he leads."
Some of this criticism—especially from the skeptics—is warranted. Trump started a dumb war that wasn’t in the U.S. national interest, exposed the vulnerability of U.S. bases, sent a jolt of inflation through the economy, and left Iran strengthened in new ways, especially its position in the Strait of Hormuz. Like Lyndon Johnson with Vietnam and George W. Bush with Iraq, Trump is rightfully being excoriated for that.
But Trump is also trying to do something Johnson and Bush didn’t: fix the mess he made by moving from failed military options to negotiations. That strategic retreat is cunning and commendable.
For the sake of U.S. national security, Trump can’t let the criticism of the MOU derail the peace process. The alternatives to deescalation are far worse.
A return to war will almost certainly lead to the re-closing of the Strait of Hormuz, another military stalemate, and economic pain that’s likely to be far worse than what the U.S. faced prior to the MOU. Escalation would also be too costly, which Trump knows first-hand, having rejected options like surging ground troops into Iran in the past.
Other coercive options aren’t worth it either. Some argue for a continued pressure campaign or hostile policy short of war, with no concessions to Iran and U.S. troops at the ready to force Iranian capitulation over time.
Iran has shown remarkable resolve and staying power in this war, however, meaning this kind of wait-them-out strategy would likely lead to U.S. troops being bogged down in low-tempo war for years, even decades.
That kind of commitment doesn’t match U.S. interests. The Middle East has significantly declined in strategic importance over the past decade. Global terrorism emanating from the region is now minimal, the U.S. is energy independent, Israel is more secure than ever, and U.S. intelligence agencies assess that Iran poses a minimal threat to the United States.
In short, maximum pressure has run its course with Iran. It’s time for serious, good-faith negotiations with give-and-take toward deescalation.
Whether or not Trump can stay the diplomatic course remains to be seen. In his first administration, he caved, at times, to the kind of political pressure he’s facing from hawks.
Trump could now try to quiet his critics by doubling down on his long-standing obsession to get a better deal than Barack Obama’s 2015 nuclear agreement. That would not be good for peace. Trump’s unrealistic, maximalist demands in negotiations before the war and rejection of drafts of the MOU were driven explicitly by his worries about looking like Obama.
Instead, Trump can and should defy the hawks, be pragmatic, and choose continued deescalation—just as he did during the 2020 negotiations to end the Afghan war and last year to end hostilities with the Houthis.
That’s something Americans, including his MAGA base, are giving Trump the space to do. Sixty-four percent think it was a mistake to launch the Iran war in the first place and 66 percent want an end to the war even if Trump doesn’t achieve all his goals.
If Trump really wants to make history, deescalation is the way to go. The hawks will squawk, but the rest of the country will be onboard.
Will Walldorf is a Professor at Wake Forest University and Defense Priorities Senior Fellow
