Following a series of escalatory tit-for-tat strikes last week, President Trump informed Congress on Friday that the war with Iran is back on. On Monday, Trump vowed to reinstate the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and impose a 20 percent charge on all cargo moving through the strait. This is the wrong move. If the ceasefire is dead and negotiations are at an impasse, then the U.S. should walk away from this pointless war, not double down on it. Trump should declare victory and be done with it.
The previous round of fighting demonstrated that the U.S. is (thankfully) unwilling to use the military force necessary to achieve its maximalist goals of regime change and retrieving Iran’s enriched uranium. Just like before this war started, Iran poses no threat to U.S. security, and war with Tehran damages U.S. interests. The only major vital interest at stake for the U.S. now is ensuring the free flow of oil through the strait, which will help stave off additional negative economic consequences. That matters just as much to Gulf states, who are working to form a new regional security architecture that includes Iran and opens the strait.
Trump has declared victory over Iran numerous times, noting how the U.S. took out much of Iran’s top leadership, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the first day of the war, sank Iran’s navy, and set back its nuclear program. Trump can tout these tactical victories. He is uniquely capable of compartmentalizing the massive losses incurred because of the war, convincing his supporters to do so, and moving on.
The Iran war is the most unpopular in American history — Americans knew it wasn’t worth it to begin with, and those instincts were borne out in two months’ time. The first round of this war led to lost U.S. lives, significantly depleted vital military resources, damaged U.S. credibility, handed Iran a strategic victory, battered the global economy, and strengthened Russia and China. A second round is a recipe for disaster.
On the economic front, the International Monetary Fund recently projected that global growth will fall from 3.5 percent in 2025 to 3 percent in 2026 due to the impact of the war and disruptions in energy supply chains. Meanwhile, inflation is expected to rise from 4.1 percent in 2025 to 4.7 percent in 2026. These economic metrics will surely get worse if the war starts again. If Trump wants to avoid a Herbert Hoover-like legacy, he should cease escalating hostilities and support a pragmatic regional architecture that ensures the free flow of oil in the Gulf, even if that means Iran collects fees.
The good news is that regional states are already moving in that direction. Several developments in recent years have disabused Arab states of the notion that the U.S. will, or even can, guarantee their security. The Iran war is the culmination of that trend. Now these countries are diversifying their security partnerships, moving toward taking collective responsibility for the region’s security, and bringing Iran into the fold. Saudi Arabia is planning to host a conference with the Gulf Cooperation Council countries and Iran to discuss a regional non-aggression pact, advance cooperation, and build a security architecture no longer anchored in U.S. security guarantees. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, and Pakistan have increased cooperation in recent months, emerging as a powerful bloc focused on regional security and other common geopolitical interests.
The Gulf states, other regional powers, and the entire international community want to see Hormuz open and oil flow through the strait. Getting this oil to market is also a vital U.S. interest. But it’s already clear that military force will not open the strait. The U.S. should focus on achieving a narrow deal to open the strait, or walk away, and let regional states or other concerned actors hammer out an arrangement, even if it means Iran maintains some control.
The U.S. has long had plenty of reasons to retrench from the region and let it take on the responsibility for its security. U.S. primacy is not needed to maintain regional stability; if anything, the U.S. pursuit of regional dominance has fueled chaos and conflict. It’s also not in America’s interest to be so engaged in a region of declining strategic importance. The Trump administration should support these regional de-escalation efforts and use them as one of many pretexts for pulling back.
But first it must stop this pointless conflict from devolving into a forever war. A “mow the lawn” strategy against Iran will only enhance its strategic position. The escalation dynamics favor Iran because U.S. and global oil reserves are already depleted after the last round of fighting. If Iran were to close the strait again, there would be much less slack in global oil markets, and a major energy crisis would be possible.
As the region lays the groundwork for a post-American order, Trump should see the writing on the wall, withdraw from this war, and get the U.S. out of the Middle East. This would be good for U.S. interests, the global economy, regional security, and the president’s own legacy.
Adam Gallagher is a contributing fellow at Defense Priorities. Follow him on X @AEGallagher10
