Aug 5, 2020
Are We About to Move From Recession to Depression?
It’s been roughly five months since COVID-19 lockdown measures were first put in place. That means that come September, we will have gone two quarters like this with no end in...
Jul 16, 2020
Getting Real About the Thucydides Trap
We remember Thucydides as a historian thanks to his documentation of the Peloponnesian War, but we often forget that he was also a philosopher. And like all great philosophers, he...
Jul 2, 2020
The ‘Spies and Commandos’ of Afghanistan
The media exploded late last week with reports that Russia had paid the Taliban bounties to kill U.S. and Afghan troops. The plot was revealed by “spies and commandos”...
Jun 23, 2020
Why Putin Tries to Rehabilitate Stalin
Russian President Vladimir Putin likes to argue that World War II, and much of the suffering wrought by it, was the responsibility not just of Nazi Germany but of governments that...
Jun 16, 2020
Recession or Depression
In March, we declared our 2020 forecast null and void. The COVID-19 pandemic had essentially rendered it irrelevant. The question we posed in March was whether the disease and the...
Jun 3, 2020
From China to India
U.S.-China relations have been in decline for a long time. The United States had for years provided China with relatively free access to the American market. The United States wanted...
May 26, 2020
Israel and the New American Strategy
The drawdown of U.S. forces in the Middle East, about which we have written a few times now, is already empowering the countries that would replace it as a regional power. The...
May 23, 2020
Back to the Future: China and the U.S.
The COVID-19 disease, which seems likely to be with us for a long time, has done its part to define history. But it has not suspended history. Though there is much we still...
May 14, 2020
The Medical Structure and Calculated Risk
The moral foundation of medicine is that it must, first of all, do no harm. By “harm” it means that no action of the physician or the researcher should harm the patient....
May 6, 2020
Last week, I appeared on a Turkish TV station and spoke to a business group in Switzerland. The same question was the focus of both events: As a result of the coronavirus crisis,...
Apr 22, 2020
Recession and Depression
A recession is an essential part of the business cycle. Among other things it culls the weaker businesses and redistributes capital and labor for better uses. It is painful but...
Apr 16, 2020
The Beginning of Social Dysfunction
A few weeks ago, I laid out a model for thinking about the coronavirus crisis. I argued that there were four structures operating: medical, economic, social and military, with the...
Apr 8, 2020
Supply Chains and a Novel Path to Conflict
Though “supply chain” became a household term only in the past generation, it has been around since humans have been engaging in commerce. One group had fish and the...
Mar 31, 2020
The Coronavirus Closes Borders
Mar 23, 2020
Modeling the U.S. Reaction to the Coronavirus
The United States is under enormous pressure. The nature of the particular pressure is unique, though pressure on the United States from various forces is normal, as it is with other...
Mar 13, 2020
Compromising on Corona
Battling the coronavirus is essential. But the battle has costs, which are invariably measured against the gain. “No matter what the cost” – the approach many...
Mar 11, 2020
Since before World War I and throughout the 1970s, the people who controlled oil had a lever for controlling others. Since the 1980s, the equation has shifted; oil producers have...
Mar 4, 2020
Coronavirus and the Forces of History
I have presented geopolitics to be like economics, a science that predicts and summarizes the impersonal forces that drive a system so vast as to be beyond the control of...
Feb 12, 2020
China, Ultra-Competence and Coronavirus
The Communist revolution brought to power Mao Zedong. It created a state based on ideology, the belief that what would emerge from the long revolution would be a nation based on...
Feb 8, 2020
The Geopolitics of the Novel Coronavirus
Geopolitics is a fairly slow-moving process that unfolds in predictable ways. This is usually the case. There are then moments when a wild card enters the
Jan 29, 2020
The Fragmentation of the EU
At the end of this week, the United Kingdom, the second-largest economy in Europe, will exit the European Union. Meanwhile, Poland is under intense attack by the bloc for violating...
Jan 24, 2020
Russia's Puzzling Moves
Over the past few weeks, two odd things have happened in Russia. The first is that Russian President Vladimir Putin has restructured the government.
Jan 9, 2020
Tehran and the United States: What Comes Next
In order to understand the current confrontation between Iran and the United States, we might begin with the Persian-Babylonian wars. Alternatively, we could begin with the decision...
Jan 3, 2020
Turkey Makes Its Move
In “The Next 100 Years,” I described Turkey as an emerging regional power that would over time extend its sphere of influence to resemble the range of the Ottoman Empire....
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