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Jul 23, 2024
One of the most important outcomes of the U.S. presidential race may be how it affects the United States’ relationship with Europe. Donald Trump has clearly stated that he...
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Jul 16, 2024
The instability in the United States predicted by our model continued this weekend with the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump. It should be...
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Jul 8, 2024
There are certain pressures that reverberate throughout the globe that can manifest in different realms, including the economy, the military and the legal system.
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Jul 1, 2024
Devoted readers will recall what I wrote in my most recent book, “The Storm Before the Calm,” and in subsequent articles here on GPF: that the United States operates on...
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Jun 18, 2024
The international system is always changing. It usually shifts one piece at a time, each one constrained by the system to dampen its impact – and thus maintain balance and...
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Jun 11, 2024
Major news publications around the world are rife lately with articles noting how the decline in birth rates has reached a critical mass. Over the past years, life expectancy has...
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Jun 4, 2024
Last week, Moscow revived an oft-repeated threat to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Their use, of course, requires a few important things. They must be deliverable, and they must...
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May 28, 2024
Under President Vladimir Putin, Russia invaded Ukraine under the assumption that Ukraine’s defeat would be rapid and complete, bringing Russia to NATO’s eastern...
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May 21, 2024
The Russian government announced last week a massive shakeup of its senior staff. Several ministers in civilian sectors such as energy, agriculture, industry and trade, and...
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May 15, 2024
A couple of weeks ago, I wrote a piece about mass demonstrations in Budapest in which protesters expressed resentment against alleged financial corruption running rampant through the...
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May 6, 2024
In my book “The Storm Before the Calm,” I wrote that the United States is headed into institutional and socio-economic crises. The institutional crisis, in my view, would...
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May 1, 2024
When I was in graduate school, a small group of my peers and I spent considerable time examining the circumstances under which it would be possible for one nuclear power to launch a...
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Apr 29, 2024
The culture of the Israeli military was shaped in October 1973, when Egypt and Syria attacked without warning. Importantly, the assault represented a direct threat to American...
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Apr 22, 2024
At an economic forum last week in Shanghai, a senior Chinese government adviser named Liu Yuanchun, who is also the president of the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,...
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Apr 15, 2024
The U.S. has adopted a national strategy designed to use force without risking casualties of its own.
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Apr 9, 2024
Viktor Orban governed Hungary from 1998 to 2002 and again from 2010 to the present. In that time, he has dominated Hungarian politics and, to a great extent, Hungarian life.
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Apr 2, 2024
The moon will soon totally eclipse the sun – an event rare enough to be measured in centuries.
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Mar 22, 2024
The culture of the Israeli military was shaped in October 1973, when Egypt and Syria attacked without warning. Importantly, the assault represented a direct threat to American...
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Mar 5, 2024
Understanding why Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7 requires an understanding of Hamas’ fundamental goal: the creation of a Palestinian state.
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Feb 27, 2024
It’s been two years since Russia invaded Ukraine, so it’s time to lay out the strategic situation as I see it. In February 2022, I argued that Russia invaded Ukraine...
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Feb 20, 2024
Alexei Navalny was an opponent of the Russian regime, and for his trouble, he was sent to prison – a gulag, as it was called under the Soviets – after being poisoned the...
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Feb 13, 2024
Russian President Vladimir Putin did something unprecedented last week: He held a two-hour press conference directed at the American public. It was not exactly a press conference, in...
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Feb 7, 2024
Many argue that the United States should not have involved itself in the Ukraine war. For some, it’s a matter of national interest; for others, it’s simply too expensive....
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Jan 24, 2024
I have written a great deal about socio-economic cycles but far less on institutional cycles, specifically how the fourth institutional cycle in American history will emerge. But now...
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Jan 16, 2024
The trilateral security partnership comprising the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia – known simply as AUKUS – is among the most interesting alliances in...
Jul 1, 2024Devoted readers will recall what I wrote in my most recent book, “The Storm Before the Calm,” and in subsequent articles here on GPF: that the United States operates on...
Jun 18, 2024The international system is always changing. It usually shifts one piece at a time, each one constrained by the system to dampen its impact – and thus maintain balance and...
Jun 11, 2024Major news publications around the world are rife lately with articles noting how the decline in birth rates has reached a critical mass. Over the past years, life expectancy has...
Jun 4, 2024Last week, Moscow revived an oft-repeated threat to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Their use, of course, requires a few important things. They must be deliverable, and they must...
May 28, 2024Under President Vladimir Putin, Russia invaded Ukraine under the assumption that Ukraine’s defeat would be rapid and complete, bringing Russia to NATO’s eastern...
May 21, 2024The Russian government announced last week a massive shakeup of its senior staff. Several ministers in civilian sectors such as energy, agriculture, industry and trade, and...
May 15, 2024A couple of weeks ago, I wrote a piece about mass demonstrations in Budapest in which protesters expressed resentment against alleged financial corruption running rampant through the...
May 6, 2024In my book “The Storm Before the Calm,” I wrote that the United States is headed into institutional and socio-economic crises. The institutional crisis, in my view, would...
May 1, 2024When I was in graduate school, a small group of my peers and I spent considerable time examining the circumstances under which it would be possible for one nuclear power to launch a...
Apr 29, 2024The culture of the Israeli military was shaped in October 1973, when Egypt and Syria attacked without warning. Importantly, the assault represented a direct threat to American...
Apr 22, 2024At an economic forum last week in Shanghai, a senior Chinese government adviser named Liu Yuanchun, who is also the president of the Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,...
Apr 15, 2024The U.S. has adopted a national strategy designed to use force without risking casualties of its own.
Apr 2, 2024The moon will soon totally eclipse the sun – an event rare enough to be measured in centuries. 
Mar 22, 2024The culture of the Israeli military was shaped in October 1973, when Egypt and Syria attacked without warning. Importantly, the assault represented a direct threat to American...
Mar 5, 2024Understanding why Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7 requires an understanding of Hamas’ fundamental goal: the creation of a Palestinian state. 
Feb 27, 2024It’s been two years since Russia invaded Ukraine, so it’s time to lay out the strategic situation as I see it. In February 2022, I argued that Russia invaded Ukraine...
Feb 20, 2024Alexei Navalny was an opponent of the Russian regime, and for his trouble, he was sent to prison – a gulag, as it was called under the Soviets – after being poisoned the...
Feb 13, 2024Russian President Vladimir Putin did something unprecedented last week: He held a two-hour press conference directed at the American public. It was not exactly a press conference, in...
Feb 7, 2024Many argue that the United States should not have involved itself in the Ukraine war. For some, it’s a matter of national interest; for others, it’s simply too expensive....
Jan 24, 2024I have written a great deal about socio-economic cycles but far less on institutional cycles, specifically how the fourth institutional cycle in American history will emerge. But now...
Jan 16, 2024The trilateral security partnership comprising the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia – known simply as AUKUS – is among the most interesting alliances in...