George Friedman

Author Archive

  • Aug 5, 2020
    It’s been roughly five months since COVID-19 lockdown measures were first put in place. That means that come September, we will have gone two quarters like this with no end in...
  • Jul 16, 2020
    We remember Thucydides as a historian thanks to his documentation of the Peloponnesian War, but we often forget that he was also a philosopher. And like all great philosophers, he...
  • Jul 2, 2020
    The media exploded late last week with reports that Russia had paid the Taliban bounties to kill U.S. and Afghan troops. The plot was revealed by “spies and commandos”...
  • Jun 23, 2020
    Russian President Vladimir Putin likes to argue that World War II, and much of the suffering wrought by it, was the responsibility not just of Nazi Germany but of governments that...
  • Jun 16, 2020
    In March, we declared our 2020 forecast null and void. The COVID-19 pandemic had essentially rendered it irrelevant. The question we posed in March was whether the disease and the...
  • Jun 3, 2020
    U.S.-China relations have been in decline for a long time. The United States had for years provided China with relatively free access to the American market. The United States wanted...
  • May 26, 2020
    The drawdown of U.S. forces in the Middle East, about which we have written a few times now, is already empowering the countries that would replace it as a regional power. The...
  • May 23, 2020
    The COVID-19 disease, which seems likely to be with us for a long time, has done its part to define history. But it has not suspended history. Though there is much we still...
  • May 14, 2020
    The moral foundation of medicine is that it must, first of all, do no harm. By “harm” it means that no action of the physician or the researcher should harm the patient....
  • May 6, 2020
    Last week, I appeared on a Turkish TV station and spoke to a business group in Switzerland. The same question was the focus of both events: As a result of the coronavirus crisis,...
  • Apr 22, 2020
    A recession is an essential part of the business cycle. Among other things it culls the weaker businesses and redistributes capital and labor for better uses. It is painful but...
  • Apr 16, 2020
    A few weeks ago, I laid out a model for thinking about the coronavirus crisis. I argued that there were four structures operating: medical, economic, social and military, with the...
  • Apr 8, 2020
    Though “supply chain” became a household term only in the past generation, it has been around since humans have been engaging in commerce. One group had fish and the...
  • Mar 31, 2020
  • Mar 23, 2020
    The United States is under enormous pressure. The nature of the particular pressure is unique, though pressure on the United States from various forces is normal, as it is with other...
  • Mar 13, 2020
    Battling the coronavirus is essential. But the battle has costs, which are invariably measured against the gain. “No matter what the cost” – the approach many...
  • Mar 11, 2020
    Since before World War I and throughout the 1970s, the people who controlled oil had a lever for controlling others. Since the 1980s, the equation has shifted; oil producers have...
  • Mar 4, 2020
    I have presented geopolitics to be like economics, a science that predicts and summarizes the impersonal forces that drive a system so vast as to be beyond the control of...
  • Feb 12, 2020
    The Communist revolution brought to power Mao Zedong. It created a state based on ideology, the belief that what would emerge from the long revolution would be a nation based on...
  • Feb 8, 2020
    Geopolitics is a fairly slow-moving process that unfolds in predictable ways. This is usually the case. There are then moments when a wild card enters the
  • Jan 29, 2020
    At the end of this week, the United Kingdom, the second-largest economy in Europe, will exit the European Union. Meanwhile, Poland is under intense attack by the bloc for violating...
  • Jan 24, 2020
    Over the past few weeks, two odd things have happened in Russia. The first is that Russian President Vladimir Putin has restructured the government.
  • Jan 9, 2020
    In order to understand the current confrontation between Iran and the United States, we might begin with the Persian-Babylonian wars. Alternatively, we could begin with the decision...
  • Jan 3, 2020
    In “The Next 100 Years,” I described Turkey as an emerging regional power that would over time extend its sphere of influence to resemble the range of the Ottoman Empire....