George Friedman

Author Archive

  • Dec 2, 2020
    The head of the Iranian nuclear weapons program was killed Friday near Tehran. The assumption is that he was killed by the Israelis, whose motive was to cripple the Iranian nuclear...
  • Nov 18, 2020
    In 2005, in a speech delivered in front of Russia’s Federal Assembly, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the fall of the Soviet Union was the greatest geopolitical...
  • Nov 10, 2020
    Congress is deeply divided. The Senate may come in at a tie, with Vice President-elect Kamala Harris holding the deciding vote. In the House of Representatives, the Democrats’...
  • Nov 5, 2020
    No matter who becomes America’s next president, certain things will follow. The world will wonder what President Donald Trump’s foreign policy will be in his second term,...
  • Oct 29, 2020
    International conferences for people in my profession are generally a thing of the recent past, having been replaced by virtual conferences via platforms like Zoom and Webex....
  • Oct 21, 2020
    In the 1970s, President Richard Nixon stepped into the political and social chaos wrought by the Johnson administration and compounded it substantially. Hence, when I visited Europe...
  • Oct 16, 2020
    Russian President Vladimir Putin described the collapse of the Soviet Union as the greatest geopolitical catastrophe in history. Though it may not be true of all of history, it is...
  • Oct 6, 2020
    During the Cold War, the United States opposed the Soviet Union wherever the Soviet Union sought to make inroads. Some interventions were necessary and therefore took place in...
  • Sep 24, 2020
    There was a time when a flight to a place far away would thrill me. But that was long ago, and it is no longer the case. Perhaps because I now value more what I have at home than the...
  • Sep 9, 2020
    Since we are about to see a new and presumably final round of negotiations on the divorce, with the EU now calling for a rapid resolution, even as the Irish question is now the...
  • Sep 2, 2020
    On Aug. 17, 1982, U.S. Secretary of State George Shultz sent a memo via an American diplomat to the Taiwanese government. On Monday, just over 38 years later, the memo was...
  • Aug 25, 2020
    Alexei Navalny, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s highest-profile political opponent, remains alive in a German hospital after being poisoned in the Russian town of Tomsk. The...
  • Aug 24, 2020
    There are moments in history when disparate global events combine to change the shape of the global system. People like me long for these moments, much
  • Aug 13, 2020
    Belarus, whose recent elections are making waves throughout the media, has been a pending flashpoint in Europe for some time. The reasons for this are history and geography. Since...
  • Aug 5, 2020
    It’s been roughly five months since COVID-19 lockdown measures were first put in place. That means that come September, we will have gone two quarters like this with no end in...
  • Jul 16, 2020
    We remember Thucydides as a historian thanks to his documentation of the Peloponnesian War, but we often forget that he was also a philosopher. And like all great philosophers, he...
  • Jul 2, 2020
    The media exploded late last week with reports that Russia had paid the Taliban bounties to kill U.S. and Afghan troops. The plot was revealed by “spies and commandos”...
  • Jun 23, 2020
    Russian President Vladimir Putin likes to argue that World War II, and much of the suffering wrought by it, was the responsibility not just of Nazi Germany but of governments that...
  • Jun 16, 2020
    In March, we declared our 2020 forecast null and void. The COVID-19 pandemic had essentially rendered it irrelevant. The question we posed in March was whether the disease and the...
  • Jun 3, 2020
    U.S.-China relations have been in decline for a long time. The United States had for years provided China with relatively free access to the American market. The United States wanted...
  • May 26, 2020
    The drawdown of U.S. forces in the Middle East, about which we have written a few times now, is already empowering the countries that would replace it as a regional power. The...
  • May 23, 2020
    The COVID-19 disease, which seems likely to be with us for a long time, has done its part to define history. But it has not suspended history. Though there is much we still...
  • May 14, 2020
    The moral foundation of medicine is that it must, first of all, do no harm. By “harm” it means that no action of the physician or the researcher should harm the patient....
  • May 6, 2020
    Last week, I appeared on a Turkish TV station and spoke to a business group in Switzerland. The same question was the focus of both events: As a result of the coronavirus crisis,...
  • Apr 22, 2020
    A recession is an essential part of the business cycle. Among other things it culls the weaker businesses and redistributes capital and labor for better uses. It is painful but...
  • Apr 16, 2020
    A few weeks ago, I laid out a model for thinking about the coronavirus crisis. I argued that there were four structures operating: medical, economic, social and military, with the...
  • Apr 8, 2020
    Though “supply chain” became a household term only in the past generation, it has been around since humans have been engaging in commerce. One group had fish and the...
  • Mar 31, 2020
  • Mar 23, 2020
    The United States is under enormous pressure. The nature of the particular pressure is unique, though pressure on the United States from various forces is normal, as it is with other...
  • Mar 13, 2020
    Battling the coronavirus is essential. But the battle has costs, which are invariably measured against the gain. “No matter what the cost” – the approach many...
  • Mar 11, 2020
    Since before World War I and throughout the 1970s, the people who controlled oil had a lever for controlling others. Since the 1980s, the equation has shifted; oil producers have...
  • Mar 4, 2020
    I have presented geopolitics to be like economics, a science that predicts and summarizes the impersonal forces that drive a system so vast as to be beyond the control of...
  • Feb 12, 2020
    The Communist revolution brought to power Mao Zedong. It created a state based on ideology, the belief that what would emerge from the long revolution would be a nation based on...
  • Feb 8, 2020
    Geopolitics is a fairly slow-moving process that unfolds in predictable ways. This is usually the case. There are then moments when a wild card enters the
  • Jan 29, 2020
    At the end of this week, the United Kingdom, the second-largest economy in Europe, will exit the European Union. Meanwhile, Poland is under intense attack by the bloc for violating...
  • Jan 24, 2020
    Over the past few weeks, two odd things have happened in Russia. The first is that Russian President Vladimir Putin has restructured the government.
  • Jan 9, 2020
    In order to understand the current confrontation between Iran and the United States, we might begin with the Persian-Babylonian wars. Alternatively, we could begin with the decision...
  • Jan 3, 2020
    In “The Next 100 Years,” I described Turkey as an emerging regional power that would over time extend its sphere of influence to resemble the range of the Ottoman Empire....