George Friedman

Author Archive

  • Sep 20, 2022
    Last week, I discussed the nature of tactical nuclear weapons. They are built for tactical effect, not strategic effect. Strategic nuclear weapons, such
  • Sep 13, 2022
    During World War II, one needed to say only “the war” for others to know what was being discussed. We have reached the same point with the Russo-Ukrainian war. This is...
  • Sep 7, 2022
    In my latest book, “The Storm Before the Calm,” I predicted that the U.S. would go through a massive social crisis in the 2020s. That prediction has
  • Sep 1, 2022
    I do not regard the German production shortfall as a cause for real concern. But in the long run, the European belief that the Continent faces no threats, or that the U.S. will...
  • Aug 23, 2022
    Last week my friend and colleague, Jacek Bartosiak, wrote a piece for GPF titled “The Scalable World War Ahead,” in which he warned that the world is
  • Aug 19, 2022
    Many of our readers have challenged my idea that Russia invaded Ukraine out fear – fear that, deprived of the strategic depth Ukraine provides, Russia
  • Aug 16, 2022
    The war in Ukraine, now about 6 months old, is strategically important for a variety of reasons. If Russia defeats Ukraine and takes control of the
  • Aug 10, 2022
    U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s recent visit to Taiwan predictably sparked outrage in China, which responded by flexing its muscles through some
  • Aug 9, 2022
    GPF Chairman George Friedman and COO Antonia Colibasanu discussed the evolving commodities crisis, rising inflation, and wide-reaching impacts from the war in Ukraine. To learn more...
  • Aug 3, 2022
    The Geopolitical Futures model argues that the northern tier of entities are the center of power in the global system and define how the system works at any given moment. The anchors...
  • Jul 26, 2022
    Russia and Ukraine have signed an agreement to permit the shipping of grain through the Black Sea to world markets. A few hours after the agreement was
  • Jul 19, 2022
    The war in Ukraine rages on as the United States still wants to prevent Russia from effectively reaching Eastern Europe. To that end, Washington’s
  • Jul 13, 2022
    Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was assassinated last week. Days later, his political party won an overwhelming majority in parliament. The Liberal Democratic Party...
  • Jul 6, 2022
    The city of Lysychansk has fallen to Russia, giving it full control of Ukraine’s breakaway Luhansk region. Russian forces also occupy nearly all of neighboring Donetsk, the...
  • Jun 29, 2022
    The trip from Warsaw to Budapest is a trip between two realities. Warsaw is not quite on a war footing but exudes a desire to be there. For the Polish, Ukraine is their war too,...
  • Jun 22, 2022
    The evolution of military power is one of the most important if underrated geopolitical changes happening in the world today. Throughout the 20th century, military power was the...
  • Jun 15, 2022
    The American economy, the largest and most dynamic in the world, is a geopolitical issue. And right now, it is in a predictable period of dysfunction. It’s been compared...
  • Jun 8, 2022
    French President Emmanuel Macron said last week that an off-ramp must be found for Russian President Vladimir Putin in Ukraine. This is not a novel idea. Negotiators know what they...
  • Jun 7, 2022
    After World War II, the United States wrote a constitution for Japan that stated, in Article 9, that Japan would not maintain a military in the future.
  • Jun 1, 2022
    Nearly every time Russia has been invaded, it has been saved by its strategic depth. Russia can’t truly be defeated without first taking Moscow, and it is a long way to Moscow....
  • May 25, 2022
    The United States recently said that it would defend Taiwan in the event China invades it. More interesting is that Japan, a country that hasn’t undertaken military action...
  • May 18, 2022
    Paris, where my wife and I are spending some time, is a city that must be walked, preferably without a map or destination. Like many European cities but few American ones, Paris...
  • May 10, 2022
    Russia has been waging war in Ukraine for a little over two months now. That’s not an especially long time. The Korean War lasted for three years, World War II for six. The...
  • May 9, 2022
    History shows that in war, a rapid victory doesn’t require a carefully considered justification. A country goes in, wins, and makes the case later. An extended war, however,...
  • May 3, 2022
    A week ago, I wrote a piece on the stages of history, pointing out systemic shifts that have taken place for more than 200 years. In the last century, these shifts took place...
  • Apr 27, 2022
    The war in Ukraine began under a faulty assumption shared by many, including the United States, that if Russia invaded, it would defeat Ukraine, and it would do so quickly. The...
  • Apr 19, 2022
    No war is small when you are living in it, but the world is large, and large wars are rare. At the same time, wars reverberate in unexpected ways. A small war here might make another...
  • Apr 14, 2022
    I believe that Putin is, in the end, fighting for his political life, and that makes him open to the Hail Marys of the game. Since he will not go quietly, this is a risky and...
  • Apr 7, 2022
    As we consider how the war in Ukraine will end, we must first understand how it began. Russia invaded for geostrategic reasons – having Ukraine as a buffer state safeguards...
  • Mar 31, 2022
    I am writing this from Dubai, on a trip I will describe on my return to the United States. A summit was held in Israel over the weekend between Bahrain, Egypt, the United Arab...
  • Mar 28, 2022
    For as often as it happens, nations typically don’t elect to enter wars if they know they will be long, drawn-out, uncertain and expensive affairs. They enter wars when they...
  • Mar 23, 2022
    The war in Ukraine is a humanitarian tragedy to be sure, but that’s not why it has commanded the world’s attention. After all, there are humanitarian crises taking place...
  • Mar 15, 2022
    After a war, all parties turn to “lessons learned,” a phrase that has become commonplace. A war is, in a hideous way, a learning opportunity, with the goal being that the...
  • Mar 9, 2022
    The occupation of Ukraine has not been achieved, but it is not a lost cause. Perceptions of the strength of Russia’s military, however, have been badly damaged. There is no...
  • Mar 7, 2022
    War is agony for everyone involved. Wars are bloody affairs that have consequences not just for the soldiers who fight them but also for the governments that decided to wage them. In...
  • Feb 22, 2022
    Last week, the European Union’s highest court ruled that Brussels can withhold funding from member states that violate the rule of law, slapping down a legal challenge from...
  • Feb 19, 2022
    We are living in a time when war appears imminent, but for many of us, this isn’t our first rodeo. I grew up during a time when war seemed to be stalking us. Americans had...
  • Feb 17, 2022
    As we consider the American claim that Russia intends to attack Ukraine – which the Kremlin denies – it is useful to consider in skeletal form the phases
  • Feb 9, 2022
    Over the past few days, the United States has warned that a Russian invasion of Ukraine may be imminent. The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said Russia could take Kyiv in as...
  • Feb 1, 2022
    If you look at the whole of Russia’s behavior around Ukraine, its strategy becomes clear – or as clear as clear gets in geopolitics. The buildup of troops started months...
  • Jan 28, 2022
    Regardless of how the Ukraine crisis ends, one thing present but often overlooked is the German question. It’s a question that has hounded Europe for centuries. After the...
  • Jan 25, 2022
    In looking at Russian strategy in Ukraine, and indirectly toward the United States, there is a mystery that seems to have an obvious answer but that is difficult to simply...
  • Jan 10, 2022
    It has been about two years since “The Storm Before the Calm: America’s Discord, the Crisis of the 2020s, and the Triumph Beyond” was published, and about three...
  • Jan 5, 2022
    Sixty years ago, in 1962, the United States made the decision to go to war in Vietnam, deploying major ground and air forces to the battle for the first time. This was a fraction of...