Robert Kelly

Author Archive

  • Sep 11, 2023
    The most obvious reason to continue to support Ukraine is that it is the object of naked territorial aggression and humanitarian punishment.
  • Jul 11, 2023
    So there are six ways Russia might turn the war around. All are unlikely, and three rely on foreign behavior – over which Putin has little control – dramatically changing.
  • Jul 10, 2023
    I see six Russian possibilities to win in Ukraine. Unfortunately, most are unlikely as they require major changes in well-established behavior, by either Russia or outside parties.
  • Jul 6, 2023
    Ukraine recently launched a counter-offensive against Russia’s invasion. That push has not succeeded as well as many had hoped.  
  • Jun 26, 2023
    Putin will withdraw from Ukraine – will give up and go home – when the war’s costs dramatically exceed its benefits. The war is already balance-negative and only...
  • May 10, 2023
    South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol has prioritized fixing South Korea’s relationship with Japan. Since taking office last spring, he has made a concerted...
  • Apr 19, 2023
    Putin can force the Ukraine war on his population given the power of the repressive apparatus. But more than anything, he needs to win the war and go home to reconstitute his...
  • Jan 17, 2023
    The debate on nuclearization in South Korea itself is culminating. South Korea public opinion is supportive. How should America respond?
  • Jan 3, 2023
    This last year was one of near-constant North Korea missile testing. Dozens of launches have put the region on edge and are driving an increasingly militarized...